Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, approximately three million Russians have crossed into Kazakhstan, largely to evade conscription and the escalating conflict at home. Many anticipated finding a more open and tolerant environment in the neighboring Central Asian country, given its relatively unrestricted internet access, availability of Western brands, active involvement of international non-governmental organizations, and academic partnerships with Western universities.

Initially, Kazakhstan appeared to offer an alternative to the tightening restrictions within Russia. Human rights activists have occasionally spoken out in the press, and the country maintained certain freedoms not found in Russia, such as more diverse consumer options and less internet censorship. However, recent political developments indicate a significant shift in Kazakhstan’s domestic policies and its geopolitical alignment.

Constitutional amendments have recently expanded the powers of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Observers note that Tokayev’s reliance on Russian support to consolidate his authority has influenced Kazakhstan’s trajectory, causing it to increasingly align with Moscow’s agenda. This is evidenced by the introduction of laws resembling Russia’s restrictive measures, such as a ban on so-called “LGBT propaganda” and the imminent implementation of legislation targeting foreign agents. Additionally, bloggers and other dissenting voices are reportedly being detained under statutes comparable to Russia’s “fake news” law.

Amid these changes, Kazakhstan has begun cooperating with Moscow’s demands to repatriate Russian nationals who fled to escape conscription and seek refuge. Thousands of Russians who arrived hoping for freedom from repression and war are now confronted with the prospect of returning to Russia or seeking asylum in other countries. The initial promise of openness and protection has given way to an environment increasingly characterized by government control and curtailed civil liberties, leaving many displaced Russians in a precarious position.