Hong Kong continues to face a declining birth rate despite government efforts to encourage young couples to have more children. The city’s aging population is accelerating, with one in four residents projected to be aged 65 or older by 2028, and estimates suggesting that by the 2040s, one in three people could fall into this age group. Projections indicate the elderly population may reach approximately 2.74 million by 2046.
While increasing longevity contributes to the aging demographic, the shrinking proportion of younger people to support the elderly presents economic and social challenges. In response, the Hong Kong government introduced a HK$20,000 baby bonus scheme three years ago, allocating HK$2.28 billion (US$291 million) over three years to stimulate higher birth rates. However, as of February, more than 40 percent of the funds remained unclaimed, underscoring the scheme’s limited impact.
Birth rates have continued to decline, with a record low of 31,714 births registered in 2025. This fell short of earlier government projections that anticipated a rise to around 39,000 births annually by 2024, following a low of approximately 32,500 births in the Covid-affected year of 2022. The period from mid-2025 to mid-2026 saw just 29,700 births—the lowest since official records began in 1962. Additionally, the first eight months of this year recorded 19,255 births, representing a 10 percent decline compared with the same period in 2025.
A 2025 survey of over 1,100 young people aged 13 to 29 conducted by the Hong Kong Federation of Youth Groups found that only 36.5 percent expressed interest in having children, while 30.6 percent said they did not want any. The survey linked this reluctance to factors including job insecurity amid rapid technological disruption, high education costs, and the unwillingness to sacrifice lifestyle choices.
In response, the government has expanded and extended its incentives. Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu recently announced that the baby bonus scheme would continue for another three years, raising the cash bonus for second and subsequent children to HK$30,000 and increasing the tax allowance for such children from HK$140,000 to HK$160,000. Additional measures include waiving stamp duties on property purchases related to childbirth (capped at HK$20,000) and increasing the mortgage loan-to-value ratio for families with newborns applying for subsidized flats.
Experts highlight that housing affordability remains a critical barrier for young families. Michael Wong, an economics professor at the University of Hong Kong, emphasized the need for measures beyond cash incentives to address structural challenges, notably in housing and childcare availability.
Women, who make up just over half of the city’s university graduates, often bear the bulk of childcare responsibilities. Access to affordable, quality childcare and job protection during parenting are essential to enable higher-educated women to balance professional and family life.
Chief Executive Lee acknowledged that financial incentives alone are unlikely to reverse the trend, calling birth decisions “very personal matters.” The government has also expanded childcare and after-school care services as part of a broader approach to support working parents.
Observers suggest that while economic support is necessary, further enhancements to family-friendly policies will be crucial to addressing Hong Kong’s complex demographic challenges.