The National Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center has forecasted normal rainfall across Iran for the next six weeks, ending May 26. While precipitation levels are expected to align with seasonal averages nationwide, regional variations in rainfall and temperature are anticipated during this period.

From April 15 to 21, heavier rainfall is projected primarily in southern and southeastern provinces, with some areas likely to receive more than 100 millimeters of precipitation and a probability exceeding 75 percent. In contrast, the northern regions and central Zagros Mountains are predicted to experience below-average rainfall, while other parts of the country will see amounts within normal ranges.

Rainfall is expected to remain within typical limits during the second week, although the likelihood of receiving 20 to 50 millimeters of accumulated precipitation in the northwest and parts of the Zagros Mountains is less than 50 percent. Weeks three and four are forecasted to see above-normal rainfall, particularly in the middle and northwest Zagros, where approximately 50 millimeters of rain is anticipated with a 75 percent chance. The final two weeks of the forecast period are expected to bring largely normal precipitation levels across most regions.

Temperature patterns over the coming weeks will exhibit notable regional contrasts. In the first week, the Alborz Mountains and Zagros region are expected to see temperatures 1 to 5 degrees Celsius above average, with the northwest experiencing the most significant warming at 3 to 5 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, temperatures in the southeast will drop 3 to 5 degrees below average. A similar temperature pattern is forecasted for the second week.

By the third week, western and northern Iran are predicted to experience temperatures 1 to 3 degrees above normal, while the south and southeast will be 1 to 2 degrees below average. Temperatures are expected to return to near-normal levels during the fourth week, then rise slightly—by 1 to 2 degrees—across much of the country in the fifth and sixth weeks.

Since the start of the current water year in autumn, Iran has recorded an average precipitation of 118 millimeters nationwide, below the long-term average of 141 millimeters recorded last year, according to Ahad Vazifeh, head of the National Center for Drought and Crisis Management. Several provinces, including Fars, Hormozgan, Kerman, Semnan, and Tehran, have experienced notably reduced rainfall. Kerman, Qazvin, Tehran, and Alborz reported precipitation deficits of 50 percent, 39 percent, 33 percent, and 34 percent respectively. Conversely, provinces such as Mazandaran, Golestan, Kurdistan, and Sistan-Baluchestan have seen rainfall levels above long-term averages.

Temperature trends since autumn have shown a notable upward shift. The national average temperature since September 23 has been 13.3 degrees Celsius, approximately 2 degrees higher than the previous three-year average of 11.3 degrees. Since winter began, average temperatures have reached 9.1 degrees, compared to the long-term average of 7.1 degrees. Vazifeh noted that the final two months of the fall season this year ranked as the hottest in the past five decades.