Democratic congressional primaries across New York City are entering a critical phase as candidates intensify efforts to mobilize voters ahead of Tuesday’s election. Despite vigorous campaigning and significant spending by candidates and super PACs, early voting turnout has been notably low, raising concerns about the potential impact on several progressive candidates aligned with Mayor Quratulain Mamdani.

Polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. citywide on Tuesday, with most results anticipated that evening. The closely watched primaries include contests in Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx, specifically in districts NY-7, NY-10, NY-12, and NY-13. These races have attracted substantial attention due to intense competition, substantial campaign financing, and the political stakes involved.

Early voting, which concluded Sunday, recorded a turnout decrease of nearly 50% compared to last year’s Democratic primaries. That previous cycle saw Mamdani’s own landmark victory over former Governor Andrew Cuomo, accompanied by a larger, more energized electorate. Mamdani attributed the current downturn in early votes to several distractions that have engaged residents during the voting period, including the Knicks’ playoff run, the World Cup, and favorable weather.

The current primary electorate also appears older, with the median voter age rising by approximately a decade relative to 2025. Political analysts suggest that this demographic shift could disadvantage some of Mamdani’s endorsed candidates, particularly in districts NY-7 and NY-13.

In NY-7, encompassing parts of Brooklyn and western Queens, Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, a Mamdani supporter, is competing in an open and unpredictable race against Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, also a progressive. Some observers believe that higher turnout among longer-term, older residents could benefit Reynoso, potentially shifting the momentum late in the campaign.

The NY-13 district in upper Manhattan features a strong challenge from Darializa Avila Chevalier, who recently secured a mayoral endorsement to compete against five-term incumbent Representative Adriano Espaillat. The older and more traditional voter base expected on primary day may favor Espaillat, according to strategists.

Brad Lander, a former city comptroller and another Mamdani-backed candidate, is considered the favorite in NY-10, which covers lower Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn. He is widely expected to defeat incumbent Representative Dan Goldman, whose path to reelection appears unlikely regardless of turnout dynamics.

Mamdani’s active involvement in these races has included bypassing established Democratic power brokers to support his chosen candidates, a move that underscores his growing influence in local politics. However, he has refrained from endorsing any contender in the NY-12 district, where Assemblymen Micah Lasher and Alex Bores face off to succeed retiring Representative Jerry Nadler, with Jack Schlossberg also in the race.

Given the strong Democratic leanings of these districts, analysts predict that the primary winners will have a relatively secure path to election in November, where only nominal Republican opposition is anticipated. The results of Tuesday’s vote will thus serve as the decisive factor in determining the next congressional representatives for these parts of New York City.