New Zealand’s foreign affairs portfolio is shaping up to be a subject of speculation ahead of the general election, with the future role of incumbent Foreign Minister Winston Peters uncertain despite longstanding assumptions of his continued tenure.
Peters, leader of New Zealand First, has served as Foreign Minister since 2017 and has held the position for three terms. However, the Opportunity Party (TOP), a minor political group, previously ruled out supporting any government in which Peters held the Foreign Affairs role. That stance was reaffirmed by TOP leader Qiulae Wong at a recent press conference, although she clarified that TOP’s five newly announced bottom lines reflect proactive policy positions rather than opposition to potential coalition arrangements. The omission of the Peters ban from these bottom lines has fueled speculation that it may no longer be a strict deal-breaker if he seeks to retain the portfolio in a new government.
Peters himself has neither confirmed nor denied his intentions to continue as Foreign Minister. In an interview last week, he pushed back on suggestions that he would not seek the role again, cautioning against premature assumptions. The posting of his foreign affairs adviser Jon Johansson to Stockholm has been interpreted by some as an indication Peters may step aside, but this remains inconclusive. At 81 years old, Peters may be weighing the personal demands of extensive international travel against other priorities, including a possible focus on domestic policy if New Zealand First secures a larger presence and stronger coalition position.
Other candidates within the likely coalition partners are also discussed as potential successors or alternative holders of the Foreign Affairs portfolio. National Party figures such as Todd McClay, the current Trade Minister with past experience in foreign trade matters, have been identified as strong contenders. McClay’s familiarity with international issues and government experience make him a plausible choice, though combining the Foreign Affairs and Trade ministries, as occurred between 1990 and 1996 under former minister Don McKinnon, would require McClay to relinquish his current trade responsibilities.
Mark Mitchell, former Defence Minister with international and Five Eyes experience, is another possibility within National’s ranks. Gerry Brownlee, the current Speaker of the House and former Foreign Minister, might also have interest in the role but is widely expected to retain his speakership. New National Party leader Christopher Luxon could also consider holding the portfolio himself, emulating former Prime Minister David Lange, who kept Foreign Affairs in his own portfolio initially.
The deputy leader of the National Party, Nicola Willis, has also been mentioned as a potential Foreign Minister, particularly if coalition coalition dynamics narrow options for portfolio allocation—especially if other parties such as ACT or New Zealand First secure senior economic portfolios like Finance.
On the Labour-New Zealand Green Party side, if the incumbent government is returned, the party’s foreign affairs spokeswoman Vanushi Walters is seen as a front-runner from Labour. The Greens, polling strongly and likely to negotiate for significant portfolios, could press for Foreign Affairs as well. Teanau Tuiono, the Greens’ foreign affairs, defence, and disarmament spokesperson, is a notable figure within the party whose influence in coalition talks could increase. The Greens held the Foreign Minister portfolio in Germany between 2021 and 2025, providing a precedent for Green party members controlling such a significant ministry.
As New Zealand approaches the election, the fate of the Foreign Affairs portfolio remains uncertain, contingent on coalition negotiations, election outcomes, and each party’s strategic priorities. Peters’ next move will be closely watched, but the possibility of a reshuffle is strong given several credible contenders and political factors at play.