China’s recent test of an intercontinental ballistic missile on July 6 in the Pacific Ocean, coinciding with the signing of the Ocean of Peace Alliance between Australia and Fiji, has highlighted growing tensions over military activities in the South Pacific region. This development underlines the challenges facing Pacific Island nations as they navigate the increasing involvement of major powers in their maritime domain.

Pacific Islands Forum leaders have long promoted the concept of the South Pacific as an “ocean of peace,” aiming to maintain the region free from military escalation and great-power rivalry. However, China’s missile test underscores the extent to which strategic military maneuvers by external actors are now encroaching on these waters. While Chinese officials described the launch as routine, analysts say the test sends a clear signal of expanding geopolitical competition in the area.

The Pacific Island nations prioritize issues such as climate change, sea-level rise, economic stability, and digital infrastructure over traditional military concerns. Despite this, they face the ongoing reality of external powers projecting hard military power within their vicinity. This contradiction raises questions about the effectiveness of the “ocean of peace” framework and the ability of small island states to assert their diplomatic agency amid competing security interests.

To uphold the integrity of the region’s peaceful status, experts suggest two key measures. First, Pacific Island countries should collectively act as gatekeepers, requiring that any bilateral security agreements or military operations within the region receive prior consultation among member states. Second, major powers including China, the United States, and Australia, should focus their security engagements on priorities defined by the Pacific community—such as enhancing maritime domain awareness, supporting disaster response, and bolstering infrastructure resilience—rather than unilateral demonstrations of military strength.

Without the establishment of clear guidelines to manage military behavior by external actors, there is a growing risk that the South Pacific could evolve into a theatre for direct geopolitical competition instead of remaining a zone of peaceful cooperation. For Pacific Island nations, balancing their interests amid rising great-power rivalry will be crucial to preserving the vision of the region as a stable and secure oceanic environment.