Unusually timed trading activity took place shortly before former U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would refrain from attacking Iranian infrastructure, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices and a rally in U.S. equity markets. The sequence of events on March 23 has drawn intensified regulatory scrutiny and raised questions about whether some market participants acted on nonpublic information.
According to reports, just before 6:49 a.m. Eastern Time on March 23, traders executed sales of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures totaling volumes equivalent to at least 6 million barrels. This figure was more than eight times the average trading volume during the same period in the preceding week. Concurrently, futures contracts linked to the S&P 500 index saw a surge, with over $2 billion in notional value changing hands, indicating significant bets positioned against oil prices and in favor of rising stocks.
Approximately 15 minutes later, Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, that he was retracting a previous threat to target Iranian infrastructure unless Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route. Following this announcement, Brent crude prices plunged nearly 14%, and stock markets in the United States and Europe rallied roughly 4% from session lows to intraday highs.
Market analysts noted that the preannouncement trading activity was positioned perfectly to benefit from the movements triggered by Trump’s statement. Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives at Energy Aspects, remarked that the timing could indicate either a rare coincidence or possible advance knowledge, although publicly available trading data has not definitively resolved which was the case.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) initiated an inquiry into the unusual activity. Analysts within the agency referred the March 23 trades to enforcement lawyers for further examination. However, according to sources, a senior adviser to the CFTC chairman instructed a supervisor to withdraw the referral, citing the need for a broader investigation encompassing international markets and multiple types of financial instruments.
The CFTC has confirmed that its enforcement division continues to investigate the trading patterns from March 23 and is considering broader implications. This episode is one among several instances in the spring of 2026 when trading ahead of Iran-related announcements drew regulatory interest. Similar anomalies were observed before Trump’s ceasefire announcement on April 7 and Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on April 17, suggesting a pattern of heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical developments involving Iran.
At present, regulators have not publicly disclosed whether any violations of market rules have been found, and the wider investigation remains ongoing. The case highlights the challenges authorities face in monitoring complex global markets for potentially illicit trading linked to sensitive geopolitical information.