Oil exports from the Middle East have risen notably in September, approaching pre-conflict levels despite ongoing tensions and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple oil tracking firms and analysts. This development comes amid heightened geopolitical friction involving Iran, the United States, and Gulf producers, with significant implications for global energy markets.

Data compiled by Kpler, a tanker-tracking company, shows that about 10 million barrels of oil per day have passed through the Strait of Hormuz this month. Additionally, approximately six million barrels per day have been exported through pipelines and ports that bypass the strait, bringing the total regional exports close to 16 million barrels daily—roughly 85% of prewar flow levels recorded before February. Before the outbreak of hostilities earlier this year, around 19 million barrels of crude moved daily through the strait and alternative routes combined.

The increase in export volumes partially reflects enhanced efforts by the U.S. military to protect commercial shipping from Iranian attacks, which have targeted tankers and oil infrastructure repeatedly since the conflict began. The U.S. Central Command has asserted that it continues to safeguard commercial navigation through the strait, though some experts caution that the waterway remains unsafe. Arsenio Dominguez, secretary general of the International Maritime Organization, emphasized that the strait “is not open to navigation” because of security risks, citing 85 attacks on vessels and 24 fatalities since the conflict’s onset.

Despite this, key Gulf exporters—including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq—have increasingly resumed shipments. Saudi Arabia has begun partial repairs on its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, facilitating exports that sidestep the strait, although volumes remain below normal levels. Meanwhile, the U.S. blockade reinstated in July has effectively halted Iran’s crude tanker exports from the Gulf, severely restricting Tehran’s oil revenue and undercutting its leverage in negotiations with the U.S.

Some analysts interpret the rebound in exports as a sign of weakening Iranian control over the strait. Martin Navias, a senior research fellow at King’s College London, suggested that increased shipments indicate mounting pressure on Iran rather than on the United States. However, others warn that Iran could escalate attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure or shipping lanes to regain leverage, noting its evolving tactics and the role of allied militias such as the Houthis in Yemen.

Oil prices remain elevated despite the increase in shipments, as global supply continues to fall short of demand. Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, described global markets as “tight,” warning that risks to supply disruptions persist. Jim Krane of Rice University highlighted that Iran retains a broad arsenal of options for escalation, although current indications suggest restrained actions so far.

Tanker tracking firms report varying figures on volumes transiting the strait, reflecting challenges in monitoring due to ships often disabling transponders to avoid detection. Estimates for September vary, with numbers ranging from around 7.4 million barrels per day (TankerTrackers.com) to 10 million barrels per day (Kpler). Analysts urge caution in interpreting these figures as precise, noting that shipments are increasing but have not yet returned to full preconflict levels.

Meanwhile, political tensions endure. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei recently praised “defenders of the Strait of Hormuz,” underscoring Tehran’s continued strategic interest in maintaining influence over the waterway. The United States recently rejected a proposed Iranian ceasefire that included reopening the strait and temporary easing of the blockade, signaling ongoing impasse.

Overall, while Middle Eastern crude oil exports have recovered significantly, the region remains vulnerable to renewed disruptions. Market observers highlight that without a resolution to the underlying conflict and a sustained improvement in maritime security, risks for global energy supply and prices will likely persist.