A tentative agreement aimed at ending the conflict in Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz offers cautious optimism for global energy markets, but experts warn that a swift return to normal oil flows is unlikely. The deal, expected to be signed Friday, has yet to be detailed publicly and faces significant logistical and security challenges that could delay the resumption of full oil exports through the vital maritime passage.
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was responsible for transporting about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil, serving as a critical route for countries including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman. Despite the anticipated reopening, the process of clearing hundreds of commercial vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf and restoring production and export capacity will take time.
Maritime experts emphasize that safety and navigational concerns remain paramount. Many shipowners and insurers are likely to exercise caution in sending tankers through the strait given the recent volatility. According to Richard Meade, editor-in-chief at Lloyd’s List, safe transit depends on prerequisites such as mine clearance and resumption of recognized shipping lanes, which have been disrupted by Iran’s prior threats to attack vessels using internationally established mid-strait routes.
Some ships have been exiting the gulf via restricted northern lanes controlled by Iran or through southern passages along Oman’s coast under U.S. military oversight, but around 500 commercial vessels remain in the gulf, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler. Amena Bakr, head of Middle East energy and OPEC+ insights at Kpler, projects a multi-month timeline involving up to six months for mine clearance, additional months to handle vessel rotation for loading and transit, and further time to ramp up oil production to prewar output levels.
The precise terms of what constitutes an "open" strait are also unclear, as Iran has insisted on collecting fees for passage and has already demanded payments from some ships. While former U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the agreement involves toll-free transit, Iranian officials have not confirmed this, and the issue remains a potential source of tension. Analysts note that demands for payments to entities linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could conflict with U.S. and European Union sanctions, creating legal and financial complications for shipowners and banks.
In addition to navigational challenges, oil producers themselves face hurdles in resuming exports. Some nations halted production due to limited storage during the war. While countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE may quickly restart operations due to alternative export routes, others such as Iraq, which experienced more significant production shutdowns, may need up to a year to recover fully, according to industry analysts.
Economists caution that even with the reopening of the strait, oil supply restoration will be gradual, with energy flows potentially reaching 80% of prewar levels by September. Moreover, inflationary pressures linked to energy prices are projected to persist, as global economies face delayed adjustments. Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, and Joachim Nagel, president of Germany’s Bundesbank, have both noted that inflation is expected to remain above target for much of this year and into the next, even as temporary government relief measures expire.
Ultimately, the durability of the ceasefire and ongoing security assurances will be key factors influencing how soon and how fully the Strait of Hormuz can return to its role as a reliable conduit for global oil shipments.