Oil prices have continued to rise despite a partial recovery in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway responsible for about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has remained above $100 per barrel, trading around $103, marking a significant increase since early September.

In recent weeks, crude oil flows through the strait have rebounded closer to prewar levels, largely due to U.S. Navy operations that have provided protection to shipping routes and the reduced military capability of Iran. Estimates from ship tracking firms indicate that daily crude throughput through the strait averaged between 10 million and 12.5 million barrels in late September, approaching levels last seen before the outbreak of regional conflict in February. However, these figures vary, and the overall situation remains volatile, with some days seeing much lower volumes due to security threats.

While crude oil shipments have improved, refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel remain in short supply, contributing to sustained high fuel prices globally. Refining infrastructure in the Middle East has been severely damaged and continues to face the risk of further attacks, limiting the availability of finished products for consumers. This ongoing disruption has kept prices elevated, with U.S. gasoline prices averaging $4.43 per gallon and diesel reaching $6.41 per gallon, according to recent data.

The continued high costs have prompted discussions within the energy sector about increasing production from alternative sources. For example, there are calls for the UK government to approve new North Sea oil and gas projects, such as the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields, to reduce reliance on foreign supplies. Some industry leaders argue that exploiting domestic fossil fuel resources could bolster the economy by creating jobs and increasing tax revenues as the country transitions towards cleaner energy.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve tensions between the United States and Iran remain stalled, with President Trump denying reports of potential sanctions relief linked to nuclear negotiations. The unresolved conflict contributes to market uncertainty, and experts caution that maintaining stable oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz relies heavily on costly U.S. military presence and complex logistical arrangements. Any renewed escalation could disrupt the fragile recovery of shipments and further damage critical infrastructure, including onshore oil facilities and pipelines.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, a strategic alternative to the strait, was recently reopened after suffering attacks from drone strikes but remains vulnerable. Its partial operation has helped ease some supply pressures, but the risk of renewed strikes persists.

Industry analysts agree that although the recent increase in crude shipments is a positive development, it does not fully mitigate the energy market’s challenges. Oil inventories are depleted, refining capacity is strained, and the regional conflict’s trajectory remains uncertain. Consequently, oil markets are expected to remain volatile, with prices supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and structural supply constraints.