Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel following developments in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, after Iran asserted tighter control over the region and reported attacks on multiple vessels attempting to transit the waterway.
On September 9, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) expanded a no-go zone beyond the Strait of Hormuz, which has been subject to restricted traffic since the outbreak of conflict with the United States on February 28. Tehran indicated that vessels must now obtain permission and pay transit fees to pass through the strait, which typically handles about one-fifth of the world’s oil exports. Iranian state media said the IRGC attacked two U.S. naval vessels, eight oil tankers, and ten additional ships described as “non-compliant” while navigating the area.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose sharply with prices reaching around $101 to $105 per barrel on September 10, marking their highest level since July. The price increase reflected heightened tensions and uncertainty in the region, which is vital for global energy supplies.
The situation escalated further as the IRGC announced it had struck a U.S. military base in Jordan in response to American forces destroying five Iranian oil tankers the previous day. Jordan’s military reported intercepting 18 missiles fired at the kingdom. The U.S. military characterized its strikes as defensive actions responding to Iranian attacks targeting an American warship, the second such incident within a week.
Iranian officials have outlined conditions for ending the conflict, including demands for the U.S. to cease hostilities, withdraw Israeli forces from Lebanon, lift the blockade on Yemen, release $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and refrain from interfering in Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. The IRGC warned that any vessel entering the newly designated prohibited zones without prior coordination would face sanctions.
The conflict has further raised geopolitical tensions, as broader regional developments unfolded. Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who receive backing from Iran, took control of the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokha amid ongoing Saudi-led coalition air strikes.
Meanwhile, diplomatic pressures on Tehran have intensified. On September 9, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board voted to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council over its nuclear program’s “non-compliance.” The resolution passed by a vote of 23 to 3, with Russia, China, and Niger opposing it, and eight abstentions. Iran’s representative to the agency dismissed the resolution as U.S.-influenced and unlikely to produce results.
Amid these developments, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed confidence that oil prices would decline once the United States prevails in the conflict, which he suggested would conclude shortly after November’s midterm elections. However, reports indicate that some U.S. officials privately expect the confrontation to continue throughout the remainder of Trump’s term.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintained a hardline stance, asserting the regime in Iran is nearing collapse and emphasizing the goal of dismantling what he described as a “terror regime.” Netanyahu made these remarks during a visit to Israeli troops stationed in southern Syria, an area Israel refers to as a “security zone.”
The situation in the Gulf remains volatile, with Iran’s tightened grip on the Strait of Hormuz and military exchanges underscoring the fragility of regional security and the potential for further disruption to international energy markets.