Global oil prices fluctuated sharply on Friday amid growing concerns that the expanding conflict in the Middle East could disrupt energy shipments from the region for an extended period. The volume of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic maritime chokepoint in the Persian Gulf—dropped to its lowest level in more than two months, highlighting increasing instability in the area.

According to maritime analytics firm Kpler, only six vessels transited the strait on Thursday, marking a significant decline from pre-conflict levels when around ten times as many ships passed daily. This drop follows threats by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, which has warned it may attempt to blockade Saudi shipping lanes in the Red Sea, forcing some ships to alter their routes or turn back.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 3.9 percent to settle at $96.78 per barrel. Earlier in the day, Brent briefly climbed above $101, marking a nearly 40 percent increase since the war’s onset. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, fell 3.1 percent, trading near $89.31 per barrel. Brent crude had surpassed the $100 mark on Thursday for the first time since May, underscoring the market’s volatility.

The ongoing conflict’s impact on oil supplies has contributed to shifts in financial markets globally. The S&P 500 ended Friday flat, following a decline the previous day that secured its second consecutive weekly loss. European stocks gained modestly, with the Stoxx 600 index rising 0.8 percent. In contrast, Asian markets retreated amid concerns about rising fuel costs, tighter borrowing conditions, and challenges in the technology sector. Japan’s Nikkei dropped 2.7 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1 percent, and South Korea’s Kospi plunged 5.7 percent.

In the United States, gasoline prices edged up by 2 cents to an average of $4.11 per gallon, reflecting a 38 percent increase since the conflict began. Diesel prices also surged, rising to $5.24 per gallon—40 percent above pre-war levels. Industry observers note that gasoline prices generally lag behind crude oil price movements by several days. Compounding supply pressures, numerous refineries worldwide—particularly in the Persian Gulf region and Russia—remain offline or are operating at reduced capacity due to conflict-related damage.

Analysts from ING suggested that oil prices are likely to continue their upward trajectory unless diplomatic efforts succeed in resolving the conflict. They identified $120 per barrel as a potential threshold at which political pressure might prompt the U.S. administration to resume negotiations. Meanwhile, Iran is believed to favor higher oil prices to maximize revenue, although its ability to sustain income is constrained by the continued U.S. maritime blockade, which limits Tehran’s oil exports.

With tensions showing little sign of resolution, the oil market remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, reflecting broad investor anxiety over supply security in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.