Global oil inventories have been significantly reduced amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, with Saudi Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser warning that it could take up to two years to restore depleted stockpiles. Speaking on Monday at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Nasser highlighted the severe strain on global oil supplies as a result of the seven-month war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Nasser said the conflict had led to a loss of nearly 3 billion barrels of oil supply, roughly equivalent to half the volume of crude oil and refined fuels that would have normally passed through the Strait of Hormuz during this period. To mitigate the shortfall, more than 1 billion barrels have been withdrawn from various reserves, including over 300 million barrels released by governments as part of coordinated efforts, such as the recent G7 agreement to ease market pressures. However, Nasser emphasized that the largest share of available reserves has been drawn from commercial inventories held by companies, which he described as the "last major tool in the box."

He estimated that less than 6 billion barrels of commercial oil inventories remain worldwide, but the majority are not practically accessible. Nasser cautioned that a significant portion of reported reserves, including government stockpiles, often represent minimum operational levels rather than readily deployable volumes. “Emergency reserves might buy us a winter. They cannot fix long-term supply,” he noted.

Despite the challenges, Middle Eastern oil exports—excluding Iran—have recently surpassed pre-war levels. Data from maritime tracking firm Kpler indicated that shipments from Gulf countries reached around 15.5 million barrels per day last month, marking the highest volume since the conflict began and exceeding 80 percent of pre-conflict flow. Kpler also reported that about 40 percent of oil exports now bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with much of the crude transferred via offshore tanker exchanges and transported through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

At the same time, the conflict has increased risks to infrastructure and shipping routes. Nasser pointed to attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces and assaults on Aramco’s pipelines and refineries by proxies in Iraq and Yemen. He expressed concern over the use of modern technological tools like satellite imagery and shipping data, warning that “tools of transparency should not become ammunition for aggression.”

The tightened market conditions have contributed to higher prices for physical crude, with North Sea cargoes slated for delivery this month reaching levels not seen since April. While logistical adjustments have helped restore some supply flows, industry leaders acknowledge that the global oil system remains strained, underscoring vulnerabilities exposed by the ongoing conflict in the region.