Martina Mielke, a former crane operator at the Neptun shipyard in Rostock, recalls the close and friendly relations forged with Russian crews during East Germany’s socialist era. Her experience reflects a broader sentiment in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, an eastern German state, where a distinctive view of Russia persists, one that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has effectively harnessed in recent years.
Founded in 2013 in western Germany, the AfD has made significant inroads in the eastern states. It recently secured a landmark victory in Saxony-Anhalt and is poised to lead in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s regional election scheduled for Sunday. Despite nearly five years passing since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a considerable portion of the population in this region continues to oppose severing trade and diplomatic ties with Russia or supporting Germany’s intensified military spending triggered by the conflict.
A recent poll conducted by local newspaper Ostsee-Zeitung found that nearly two-thirds of voters in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern perceive Russia as posing little or no threat. This contrasts sharply with attitudes in western Germany, where a majority—59 percent according to a recent ARD survey—view Russia as a significant threat.
Sociologist Steffen Mau of Humboldt University highlighted historical factors explaining these divergent perceptions. People in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) were generally more accepting of Soviet soldiers than citizens of other European countries that experienced occupation, partly due to the shared history of Nazi atrocities against the Red Army. Following reunification, eastern Germans became part of a NATO member state, but skepticism toward the US-led alliance has lingered. Mau noted that east Germans have been particularly cautious about NATO’s expansion into Central and Eastern Europe.
Economic challenges have further entrenched pro-Russian sentiments in the region. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, which lost around 15 percent of its population since 1990 due to westward migration of younger residents, still grapples with the aftereffects of reunification. The Neptun shipyard, once a major industrial employer with 6,500 workers producing vessels for the Soviet bloc, shrank drastically, leading to widespread job losses and economic uncertainty.
These factors have created fertile ground for the AfD’s Eurosceptic and Russia-friendly messaging even as Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s administration has taken a firm stance against Moscow’s aggression. Last month, an explosives-laden drone was discovered at Leipzig airport, and the government has warned of an escalating “hybrid war” from Moscow.
The electoral implications for Merz and his coalition—comprising the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD)—are significant. The CDU faces a steep decline in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, polling below 7 percent and at risk of missing the five-percent threshold needed to enter the regional assembly. Tensions within the CDU have surfaced publicly, with senior figures urging Merz to step down amid low approval ratings.
The SPD, which has governed the state in coalition since 1998, appears to be benefitting from a mobilization against the AfD. State Premier Manuela Schwesig has repositioned herself as a staunch opponent of the far right, running a campaign contrasting her party’s red with the AfD’s blue. Schwesig herself has shifted from her earlier advocacy for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline—a controversial project terminating in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern that was sabotaged in 2022—to a more critical stance on Russia. She accused the AfD of using the Russia issue to polarize voters.
Leif-Erik Holm, the AfD candidate for state premier, emphasized a desire to prevent escalation into war, warning against a return to prolonged cold-war tensions. Observers like Mau suggest that the region’s economic difficulties, stemming from both reunification and recent geopolitical upheavals, continue to shape a distinct eastern German attitude toward Russia and the wider conflict.