Oman is expected to back a cautious and gradual return to higher oil output as OPEC+ prepares for a critical meeting that could redefine production quotas and baseline calculations for member countries. Ali al Riyami, an Omani energy analyst and former senior official at the Ministry of Energy and Minerals, outlined the group’s current strategy and forthcoming challenges in an interview with Al Arabiya Business.
OPEC+ has implemented production hikes for six consecutive months, increasing output by approximately 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month. This phased approach is part of the unwinding of voluntary supply cuts that had been in place to support oil prices. Riyami noted that the alliance has effectively restored about 1.065 million bpd of production withheld since the cuts began. However, there remains around 2 million bpd of voluntary output reductions that have yet to be reversed.
Looking ahead, Riyami emphasized that the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, expected in the coming months, will focus significantly on reviewing and potentially revising the group’s production quota mechanism. In particular, member states will negotiate adjustments to the baseline production levels that form the basis for each country’s output allocation.
Given the importance of these discussions, Riyami anticipates that OPEC+ will temporarily pause further increases until a consensus on quota calculations is reached. “I expect there will be a hold for a certain period until an agreement is reached,” he said, adding that the remaining 2 million bpd of withheld production could then be gradually restored following the resolution.
The issue of baselines has long been a source of tension within the alliance. Iraq has publicly pushed for a higher production baseline, and prior to its exit from OPEC+, the United Arab Emirates also sought revisions. Kazakhstan is identified as another member seeking adjustments.
Riyami indicated that OPEC+ commissioned a study roughly two years ago to examine possible baseline revisions. Despite ongoing regional geopolitical challenges, he believes this work is nearing completion. If members agree to maintain current production levels during the negotiations, a broad agreement on baseline figures for the 21 or 22 participating countries could be reached within three to four months, potentially before the end of the year.
Such an outcome would lay the groundwork for OPEC+ to manage the gradual restoration of the remaining voluntary cuts in an orderly manner, consistent with the alliance's careful approach to balancing supply and demand in global oil markets.