One Nation has surged ahead in recent polling, overtaking both major parties in primary vote intention following a significant by-election victory, reshaping the Australian political landscape as state elections approach.
An exclusive poll conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights found One Nation’s primary vote at 30 percent, narrowly leading the Australian Labor Party (ALP) at 29 percent and well ahead of the Coalition, which fell to 19 percent. The polling data followed One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen’s win in the Western Australian state seat of Secret Harbour, marking the party’s first historic gain over Labor in the state and injecting momentum ahead of the Victorian and New South Wales state elections scheduled for November and March next year.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese responded to the results by sharply criticizing One Nation and its leader, Pauline Hanson, during a speech at the Queensland ALP conference. Albanese described the party’s politics as “dangerous, divisive, and downright dishonest” and emphasized the need to defeat them. He referenced past electoral performances, noting that when One Nation won 11 seats in Queensland in 1998, it lost all of them shortly after. Albanese also highlighted internal tensions within One Nation, suggesting these divisions could undermine the party’s long-term viability.
Despite the Prime Minister’s concerns, the poll indicated a substantial improvement in Senator Hanson’s personal approval ratings. Hanson's net approval rating stood at minus one, with 47 percent of respondents satisfied with her performance compared to 48 percent dissatisfied. By contrast, Albanese’s net approval was minus 21, and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor recorded a net rating of minus 17. When respondents were asked who they preferred as prime minister, Albanese led with 44 percent against Taylor's 35 percent; Hanson garnered a notable 31 percent when included in the contest alongside the two major party leaders.
The polling also revealed generational and economic divides surrounding housing prices, a key issue in recent political debates. While 62 percent of voters supported house prices either increasing or staying the same over the next two years, a significant portion—32 percent—favored a decrease. Younger voters aged 18 to 34 were more inclined to support lower house prices (48 percent), while older voters aged 35 to 49 showed stronger support for prices to remain stable or rise (70 percent). Among renters, a majority favored lower prices, contrasting with mortgage holders, 74 percent of whom preferred prices to stay steady or increase.
Labor officials maintained that recent reforms targeting housing taxes such as negative gearing, capital gains, and trusts would not have an immediate negative impact on the market’s stability. They underscored the longer-term nature of these policies, suggesting market confidence would normalize over time despite recent declines in house prices and rent increases stemming from earlier rate hikes.
Senior strategists from both Labor and the Coalition expressed confidence that One Nation’s current momentum could be temporary. They cautioned that the party’s internal divisions and lack of a cohesive long-term platform might lead to an eventual implosion before the next federal election, slated by May 2028. A Labor source noted that increased parliamentary representation could integrate One Nation more deeply into the political system, potentially moderating its influence.
As the political landscape evolves, One Nation’s rise has prompted both parties to recalibrate ahead of upcoming elections, focusing on addressing voter concerns about economic and social issues, including housing affordability and national governance.