Online prediction markets have seen a surge in activity surrounding climate-related events, with users increasingly wagering on weather disasters and environmental changes. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have experienced rapid growth over the past year, with monthly global bet volumes rising from approximately US$2 billion in mid-2025 to nearly US$24 billion by April 2026. While much of this activity centers on sports and political outcomes, a notable portion now includes bets on extreme weather and climate phenomena.
Recent events illustrate this trend vividly. In July 2026, heavy smoke from wildfires in Ontario drifted into New York, causing hazy orange skies and prompting cancellations of outdoor activities. During this period, users on Polymarket placed nearly US$54,000 in wagers over three days, betting on when the region’s air quality would improve. This example highlights the ease with which prediction markets enable gambling on real-world environmental crises.
Kalshi, one of the leading platforms, reported that last year alone nearly US$240 million was wagered on climate-related markets, with projections suggesting this figure could surpass US$1 billion by the end of 2026. Bets range widely, including questions such as whether a Category 5 hurricane will strike the United States within the year, or if an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or higher will occur globally within the month. Other markets cover longer-term events, like the retreat of Arctic sea ice or seismic activity in specific cities.
Despite the growth of these markets, access remains limited in some regions. Canadians, for example, often have to use virtual private networks (VPNs) to participate in U.S.-based platforms. However, a forthcoming app developed through a partnership between Kalshi and Wealthsimple aims to provide regulated access in Canada. This platform will prohibit sports betting but allow trading on climate-related events.
The rise of these climate prediction markets has drawn mixed reactions. Climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy, notes that while increasing extreme weather events provide more opportunities for betting, the concept of wagering on disasters may strike some as unsettling or nihilistic. She also expressed concern that the growth of such markets could potentially incentivize manipulation, pointing to incidents like a reported case in April when a trader allegedly tampered with a Paris weather station to influence settlement outcomes.
On the other hand, research from Columbia University suggests prediction markets could serve as an educational tool by increasing awareness and concern about climate change among participants. A study involving over 1,000 individuals who placed bets on climate events found that having a financial stake encouraged them to learn more about weather patterns, air pollution, and global warming. This engagement appeared to affect attitudes across political lines, even swaying some climate change skeptics toward greater acceptance of scientific consensus and support for climate action.
The researchers behind the study propose that expanding prediction markets to include climate solutions—such as clean energy adoption or electric vehicle usage—might further deepen public engagement. While they have discussed these possibilities with market operators like Polymarket and Kalshi, so far there appears to be limited interest from the platforms in creating such markets.
As prediction markets continue to grow, their role in shaping public perception and response to climate change remains an evolving story, one that balances potential educational benefits against ethical concerns about profiting from disaster.