The United Kingdom’s “one in, one out” scheme, which allows for the return of migrants who cross the Channel to France in exchange for the resettlement of an equivalent number of vetted asylum seekers from France to the UK, has cost the British taxpayer approximately £56,000 per person returned, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told the home affairs select committee. Since the pilot began last summer, around 1,400 migrants have been sent back to France under the arrangement, with a similar number of asylum seekers transferred to the UK.

The total expenditure on the scheme, which covers detention, security, legal costs, and the flights involved in both returning migrants to France and bringing asylum seekers to Britain, is estimated to be around £78.4 million. This per-person cost is comparable to the amount spent on housing an asylum seeker in a UK hotel for a year, according to Mahmood.

The pilot programme was initiated to demonstrate the operational and legal feasibility of such a bilateral deal. While it has faced ongoing legal challenges, the Home Secretary described the scheme as a “proof of concept” that cooperation between the UK and France is possible in managing Channel crossings and handling returns. She also noted that the arrangement aimed to provide a safe and legal alternative to perilous sea journeys.

Despite these efforts, the impact on overall Channel crossings remains limited. Since the scheme’s implementation, more than 28,000 migrants have successfully crossed to the UK, with those returned under the deal representing only about 4 percent of that total. Mahmood indicated that charities reported the possibility of being accepted under the scheme may have deterred some migrants from attempting the crossing, but acknowledged the numbers under the pilot remain relatively small.

The deal is set to expire at the end of September, and talks to extend or replace the arrangement are ongoing. French officials have expressed a preference for an EU-wide agreement on returns, potentially involving “return hubs” in third countries—a concept being explored by Italy, Germany, and Denmark among others—that could handle failed asylum seekers when direct returns are not possible. The French government has reportedly been hesitant to continue the bilateral deal, with one UK source suggesting France is “on the verge of pulling out” of the current negotiations.

Separately, the UK government has trialled a scheme offering failed asylum-seeking families financial incentives—up to £40,000—to voluntarily return to their countries of origin within seven days. While participation has been limited, with about 150 families taking part, officials argue it presents a cost-effective alternative to enforced removals or long-term accommodation costs.

Overall, while the “one in, one out” deal with France has demonstrated bilateral cooperation in principle, its effectiveness in deterring crossings and managing migrant flows has been questioned, and its future remains uncertain amid ongoing negotiations and shifting European approaches to migration returns.