The United Kingdom’s “one in, one out” migration agreement with France, which allows the return of Channel migrants to France matched by the transfer of legitimate UK-linked migrants from France, is reportedly nearing its end. A senior French immigration official indicated the deal is expected to conclude by the end of October, describing the arrangement as “over.”

Under the current scheme, which was initially set to expire this summer but extended through October 1, more than 1,000 migrants crossing the Channel have been sent back to France, while a similar number of eligible migrants have been relocated to the UK from France. The extension aimed to address increased migrant crossings driven by improved weather conditions.

Despite evidence acknowledged by French authorities that the deal has had a deterrent impact, France is now seeking to terminate the bilateral arrangement in favor of a broader European agreement. The French government has long advocated for all European Union countries to share responsibility for accepting migrants redirected from the UK, but reportedly faces reluctance from other member states.

A senior French immigration source told reporters that only one or two further flights were expected before the deal’s end and referenced a statement by President Emmanuel Macron, who indicated to Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham during a recent meeting that the programme’s termination was definitive. The official emphasized that France’s preference was always for a European-wide framework rather than a bilateral deal.

UK government sources acknowledged ongoing negotiations and confirmed that flights would persist beyond the October 1 deadline, though they did not respond directly to the French official’s timeline. Home Office officials are said to be hopeful for a last-minute extension of the scheme.

The arrangement originally emerged from negotiations between UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and President Macron last year. While France framed it as a temporary pilot, British political figures have advocated for expanding the programme as a stronger deterrent against unauthorised Channel crossings.

In June, Laurent Nunez, France’s interior minister, told a parliamentary commission that word of the scheme was spreading among migrants, leading some to abandon crossing plans. Meanwhile, UK officials continue to pursue ways to reinforce the deal ahead of the anticipated approach of harsher autumn and winter conditions that could influence migration patterns.