In the 1998 Queensland state election, the newly formed One Nation party, co-founded by David Oldfield, Pauline Hanson, and the late David Ettridge, achieved a remarkable electoral breakthrough by capturing 11 seats and nearly 23% of the primary vote. This performance surpassed both the National and Liberal parties, aided partly by those parties directing preferences to One Nation in an attempt to maintain power. However, despite their strong showing, One Nation fell short of forming a minority government.
David Oldfield, widely regarded as the strategic architect behind One Nation’s success, has reflected on the election with mixed emotions. While celebrating the party’s rapid rise, he expressed disappointment that the plan to establish a minority administration did not materialize. Instead, a key independent candidate, Peter Wellington—who won a seat previously held by the Nationals—supported Labor leader Peter Beattie, enabling Labor to form government. Beattie described the episode as a near turning point in Queensland politics, noting that Wellington’s support “within a whisker” prevented a One Nation-backed government. He added that some within the Labor Party had considered negotiating preferences with One Nation, an idea that ultimately did not come to fruition.
Rob Borbidge, the leader of the Nationals at the time, acknowledged he would have accepted confidence and supply from One Nation had he returned to government, but predicted such an arrangement would have been unstable due to the party’s ideological stance and internal challenges. He described One Nation’s members as “not what you would call mainstream people,” and suggested working with the party would have been difficult.
The 1998 election marked a pivotal moment in how major conservative parties would respond to the rise of One Nation. Later that year at the federal level, Prime Minister John Howard opted to rank One Nation last on Coalition preference flows, a decision that prevented the party from gaining parliamentary seats. Commentators have noted this shift reflected a strategic effort to isolate the party, contrasting with the more accommodating stance seen in Queensland.
Oldfield has contended that internal divisions within One Nation candidates affected the election outcome. He claimed his attempt to direct One Nation preferences to Coalition incumbents in key seats south of Brisbane—Springwood and Mansfield—was rejected by party members, resulting in narrow Labor victories in both constituencies. The margin of 83 votes in Mansfield proved decisive, allowing Beattie a pathway to form government and denying One Nation the balance of power.
In the years since, Oldfield and Hanson have had a fraught relationship, with Oldfield publicly criticizing Hanson’s leadership style and policy proposals as ineffective and unworkable. In a 2019 memoir, he described her as resistant to constructive criticism and prone to promoting impractical ideas. Yet, more recently, Oldfield has voiced a cautiously optimistic view of Hanson’s renewed political influence, suggesting her leadership could bring about significant change in Australia’s political landscape.
Other former One Nation figures have similarly distanced themselves amid the party’s turbulent history. Jeff Knuth, the party whip during its initial success, resigned within months and joined a splinter group. Reflecting on that period, Knuth cited internal discord and Hanson’s confrontational approach as factors contributing to the party’s early implosion.
The saga of One Nation’s 1998 breakthrough highlights the challenges faced by insurgent parties disrupting established political orders. Their rapid rise, internal conflicts, and the responses of major parties established patterns that have influenced Australian politics for decades.