Australia’s Coalition has seen its primary vote fall to a record low despite public dissatisfaction with the Labor government, according to a recent Essential poll. The survey, conducted amid debate over immigration policy and economic management, indicates a shifting political landscape as minor parties gain ground.
The Coalition’s primary vote dropped by four points since last month to 22%, while Labor’s share rebounded slightly to 29% after a dip in August. One Nation’s primary vote rose to 25%, up from 23% the previous month, positioning the party as a significant third force in federal politics. The Greens maintained a steady primary vote of 12%, with leadership changes anticipated as Larissa Waters steps down for health reasons.
The poll also reveals strong public support for reducing immigration levels, with more than half of respondents favoring cuts and robust enforcement measures such as forced deportations. Proposed reforms by Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke, including tighter restrictions on temporary migrants switching visa categories and prioritizing skilled worker visas for sectors facing shortages like health and construction, found broad approval—64% and 74%, respectively.
While the data shows a clear desire among Australians to slow immigration, Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, noted that many respondents still recognize immigration’s positive contributions. “Most people want immigration slowed down with clear rules, rather than to stop it altogether,” he said, emphasizing the importance of balanced policies.
Respondents seeking further immigration reduction most frequently cited “refugees” and “family members of people living in Australia” as target groups for cuts. Labor’s recent migration plan aims to align intake levels with budget forecasts by reforming working holiday visas, tightening family and partner visa applications, and enforcing stricter oversight of visa overstayers. Meanwhile, One Nation has proposed a dramatic reduction of temporary migrants by over 750,000 over three years, accompanied by stringent compliance measures.
The party’s hardline stance has faced criticism from experts such as Abul Rizvi, a former deputy secretary of the immigration department, who warned that such policies could incur multibillion-dollar costs and disrupt essential sectors including aged care and construction.
Housing availability remains a key concern influencing public attitudes. Although 70% of respondents said they would favor immigration cuts even if housing and public services were expanded sufficiently to accommodate population growth, there is notable support for government measures addressing immigration’s impact on housing supply.
The political implications of these evolving public sentiments are significant, with the Coalition struggling to regain traction and One Nation capitalizing on nationalist and immigration anxieties. As the Greens prepare for leadership changes, some party members are advocating for more assertive campaigning to counter right-wing populism.
Overall, the poll highlights a complex issue where economic, social, and political factors intertwine, challenging Australia’s major parties to refine their immigration approaches in a politically charged environment.