Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have sharply escalated into what officials describe as an “open war,” with recent clashes underscoring the increasingly dangerous and volatile nature of the conflict along their shared, rugged border. Efforts by China, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to mediate the dispute have so far failed to yield progress, as both sides appear to be turning away from diplomacy and increasingly rely on proxy groups to advance their interests.
On October 17, Pakistani military forces reported destroying a military camp near the border and claimed to have killed Afghan soldiers. Afghan military representatives denied these claims, instead asserting that Taliban fighters had killed 13 Pakistani soldiers. In a separate incident on September 27, the Taliban announced they had killed 28 militiamen and detained 32 more who reportedly attempted to infiltrate Afghanistan from Pakistan. Islamabad dismissed the accusation as unfounded.
Experts warn that the growing proxy involvement is intensifying the conflict’s unpredictability. Ibrahim Bahiss of the International Crisis Group noted that while the Taliban have struggled to restrain armed groups launching attacks into Pakistan from Afghan territory, Pakistani officials are increasingly considering support for anti-Taliban armed factions. Several Pakistani military and intelligence officials have reportedly held meetings with leaders of these opposition groups in recent months, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
The dispute, which Pakistan officially declared an “open war” in late February, has hampered peace initiatives and contributed to significant civilian casualties. Human rights monitoring groups estimate that at least 1,100 Afghan civilians have been killed or wounded, while militant attacks in Pakistan have resulted in over 730 civilian fatalities this year alone.
Diplomatic talks have repeatedly faltered. In April, China hosted peace negotiations without success, and a security meeting held in Moscow on October 5 involving ten countries ended without a joint statement due to sharp disagreements, according to Russia’s presidential representative on Afghanistan.
Analysts highlight the core issue as the Taliban’s alleged support for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group responsible for frequent attacks within Pakistani territory. Experts attribute an uptick in these attacks to a permissive environment under Taliban rule since 2021. The Pak Institute of Peace Studies reports there have been more than one militant attack per day against Pakistani security forces this year. The Taliban deny supporting such attacks.
While both governments publicly express a readiness to resume talks, Pakistan has conditioned negotiations on the Taliban’s commitment to end support for militant groups. Until that occurs, Pakistani military and political leaders appear to favor continued military pressure, a strategy some analysts warn may provoke further reliance by the Taliban on armed groups attacking Pakistan.
Civilians on both sides of the border are bearing the greatest burden of the ongoing violence. Residents in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province express concerns that the federal government’s recent takeover of provincial authority could enable the military to conduct operations with diminished oversight, potentially leading to displacement and further instability. Meanwhile, people in Afghanistan’s Paktia Province report widespread disruption caused by continuous shelling and airstrikes, leaving many unable to work or carry on daily life amid the escalating hostilities.