More than four decades ago, Kuwaiti astronomer Dr. Saleh Al-Ojeiri foresaw a future regional conflict centered not on oil, but on water scarcity—a prediction that has gained urgent relevance in 2026 amid escalating tensions over shared water resources in the Middle East and North Africa.

Dr. Al-Ojeiri’s insight, highlighted by retired Brigadier General Abdullah Faleh Al-Ajmi, was grounded in a strategic understanding of the region's geographic and hydrological realities. The major rivers—Tigris and Euphrates, originating in Turkey; the Nile, sourced from the Ethiopian Highlands; and Iraq and Iran’s rivers, fed by their respective highlands—are transboundary in nature, making control over their waters a critical geopolitical factor. According to Al-Ajmi, Dr. Al-Ojeiri emphasized that controlling water supplies equates to influencing the fate of nations.

In recent years, these warnings have materialized into tangible security challenges. Turkey’s construction of more than 22 dams under its Anadolu Project has substantially reduced water flow downstream to Iraq, leaving the country with less than half of its historical allocation from the Tigris and Euphrates. The city of Basra is experiencing severe water salinity and a corresponding decline in agriculture, issues that some officials link directly to damming upstream.

Further south, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile continues to spark tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. The stalled negotiations over the dam’s filling and operation underscore the difficulties in reaching agreements on water sharing, with Egypt expressing concerns over its water security and describing the Nile as essential to national survival.

The Gulf states address water scarcity primarily through seawater desalination, meeting over 90 percent of their water demand this way. However, reliance on energy-intensive desalination processes introduces vulnerabilities, as disruptions in energy supplies could directly threaten water accessibility. Al-Ojeiri had previously advocated for investment in groundwater management and nuclear desalination technologies as strategic solutions to this growing challenge.

Kuwait has taken steps to engage diplomatically in regional water issues, positioning itself as a mediator in water diplomacy endeavors. Meanwhile, international climate reports have reinforced the connection between climate change, dwindling water availability, and increased regional instability—a dynamic foreshadowed by Dr. Al-Ojeiri long ago.

Security experts warn that water scarcity has multifaceted risks, including forced displacement, social unrest, and the potential proliferation of extremist ideologies, making the issue as critical to national security as more traditional military concerns. The region’s stability, some argue, now hinges as much on dam management as on defense capabilities.

Dr. Saleh Al-Ojeiri’s early analysis, combining scientific observation with strategic foresight, frames water as a vital and contested resource, “more precious than oil,” because while oil burns out, water sustains life. His warning that “whoever controls water controls everything” has shifted from theoretical foresight to a defining element of contemporary Middle Eastern political and security discourse.