Public opposition to immigration in Canada has decreased notably since 2024, according to a recent poll conducted by the Environics Institute. The survey, released in late September, found that 48 percent of Canadians believe there is too much immigration, a significant decline from 58 percent in 2024. This marks a 10-percentage-point drop in those expressing concerns over immigration levels.

The shift in public opinion comes as the federal government prepares to unveil its immigration targets for the next three years, covering permanent residents, temporary workers, and international students. Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab is expected to announce the government’s plans shortly. The government faces pressure to raise immigration numbers to address ongoing labor shortages in key sectors essential for economic projects, including Prime Minister Mark Carney’s proposed West Coast oil pipeline.

Laurie Frigon, director of public affairs at the Canadian Construction Association, highlighted critical shortages of skilled tradespeople across provinces, citing gaps such as bricklayers in Ontario, carpenters in Quebec, and heavy equipment operators in Saskatchewan. She noted the industry’s need to recruit roughly 306,200 workers by 2034, mostly to replace retirees. With only about 272,000 young workers projected to enter the field, a shortfall of more than 34,000 is anticipated. Frigon emphasized that immigration policies should focus on selecting workers to address specific occupational and regional needs.

Provincial governments in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland have requested greater influence over immigrant selection and an increase in the number of foreign nationals they can nominate, aiming to fill local labor shortages. This follows Alberta’s recent referendum in which a majority expressed a desire for more provincial control over immigration.

The polling also revealed regional variations in perceptions of immigration. In Alberta, 58 percent of respondents felt immigration levels were too high, compared to the national average of 48 percent. Opinions on immigration’s economic impact remain largely positive, with 75 percent of Canadians acknowledging its benefits, up from 68 percent last year. Support is particularly strong among Liberal and NDP voters, while Conservative supporters remain divided.

Experts caution that while public support has rebounded, it remains essential to manage immigration levels carefully. Andrew Parkin, executive director of the Environics Institute, warned that public attitudes could shift again if immigration increases are not perceived as prudent.

The federal government has maintained an annual cap of 380,000 new permanent residents through 2028 and reduced international student visa targets by half over three years. Meanwhile, advocacy groups such as the Century Initiative argue for higher immigration to address workforce gaps in sectors critical to Canada’s defense, infrastructure, and technology industries. Lisa Lalande, CEO of the Century Initiative, stressed that fulfilling national economic and security goals depends on acquiring the necessary skilled labor.

Despite overall positive views on immigration’s economic effects, the poll found that 63 percent of first-generation immigrants believe many newcomers are not adopting Canadian values, a view shared by 57 percent of long-established Canadian families. Concerns about the legitimacy of refugee claims have also increased, with 44 percent of respondents questioning the validity of many claims, up from 36 percent in 2023.

The telephone survey of 2,000 Canadians was conducted between September 8 and 21 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.