Retail investors in the United Arab Emirates are displaying increased optimism about the local stock market despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, according to a recent survey conducted by etoro. The study, which gathered responses from 1,000 UAE-based retail investors, indicates that 82% expect the UAE stock market to rise over the next 12 months, marking the highest level of optimism since the question was first posed in November 2024. This figure represents an uptick from 76% recorded in March 2026.

Confidence in the long-term prospects of UAE-listed companies has also strengthened. About 93% of respondents expressed positive views on the future performance of domestic firms, up from 90% earlier in the year. Similarly, confidence in the broader UAE economy increased slightly from 90% to 91%.

Investors’ bullishness extends beyond national borders, with 58% anticipating the Middle East to deliver the strongest investment returns over the long term. This outlook places the region ahead of both the United States and China, which were favored by 47% and 35% of respondents, respectively.

The shift in sentiment is influencing portfolio strategies. The proportion of retail investors reducing their exposure to UAE equities in reaction to Middle East geopolitical tensions fell to 14% in the most recent survey from 25% earlier in the year. Meanwhile, 71% of investors plan to increase their investments over the coming year despite elevated global interest rates, and another 21% intend to maintain their current investment levels.

Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at etoro, noted that the market’s resilience over the past six months, underscored by consistent earnings growth, has sustained investor confidence. “Two quarters of earnings confirmed it. Most listed companies kept growing through the period, and the ones that were hurt were the ones with direct exposure to the conflict and the disruption around it,” Hassan said.

Perceptions of geopolitical risk have moderated but not disappeared. The share of investors who believe geopolitical tensions will definitely have a significant impact on their portfolios in the next six months dropped from 38% to 30%. Conversely, those expecting little or no material impact rose from 18% to 25%.

Despite reduced immediate concern, investors are prioritizing long-term security more than before. Nearly half (49%) now cite long-term security as a primary investment goal, representing a notable increase from 34% in March. This suggests a cautious approach amid broader optimism about market prospects in the UAE and the Middle East region.