Communities facing the greatest threats from climate change are often the same populations grappling with violent conflict and political instability, creating overlapping crises that severely undermine their capacity to adapt and survive. Experts warn that the interaction between rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and persistent insecurity is eroding traditional coping mechanisms, with devastating social and economic consequences.

Currently, about 860 million people live in conflict-affected countries that rank among the most vulnerable to climate change. In 2025, 22 of the 30 nations most exposed to climate hazards are projected to be experiencing violent conflict. Fragile states are expected to bear an increasing share of global poverty, with estimates indicating that by 2030, more than 130 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty due to climate impacts, and 60 percent of the world’s poorest will reside in war-torn or fragile environments.

The combination of conflict and climate change leads to a cycle of vulnerability. In many of these countries, agriculture represents a significant portion of economic output, often relying on rain-fed systems with minimal irrigation. Rising temperatures intensify soil evaporation and contribute to irregular rainfall patterns, damaging crops and causing heat stress to livestock. These effects reduce household incomes, leading to food price inflation and increased food insecurity. As water sources dry up and malnutrition rises, people are forced to migrate, further weakening the communities’ resilience to subsequent climate shocks.

While climate change itself does not directly cause armed conflict, it alters the environmental and economic conditions that influence political stability. Competition over increasingly scarce resources like water and arable land exacerbates tensions and can intensify conflicts. Conversely, ongoing conflicts damage local economies and institutions, reducing their ability to respond effectively to climate-related challenges.

Somalia exemplifies the consequences of these converging crises. In 2022, drought contributed to 43,000 excess deaths, followed by the 2023 El Niño event that caused widespread flooding and displaced around 2.5 million people. A predicted “super” El Niño continues to threaten the region. Compounding these climate shocks, armed groups exercise control over rural territories, often restricting humanitarian access and weaponizing control over water supplies. Similar dynamics are observed in other conflict zones, including Sudan, Afghanistan, the Central Sahel, and the Lake Chad Basin.

Despite their urgent needs, countries experiencing high-intensity conflict receive disproportionately low funding for climate adaptation. Current international financing for adaptation falls well short of the United Nations Secretary-General’s target that 50 percent of climate finance should support adaptation efforts. Evidence suggests that less than $3 per person annually is allocated for climate adaptation in the most conflict-affected zones, compared to higher amounts in more stable least developed countries.

This disparity stems from an international aid system fragmented across climate, humanitarian, and development sectors. While humanitarian funds target conflict-affected populations, climate and development resources flow predominantly through government channels, favoring stable states with functioning institutions. Moreover, adaptation financing often arrives too late—after crises have escalated—despite documented benefits of early warning systems that can reduce damages by up to 30 percent and yield a tenfold return on investment.

The Global Commission on Adaptation stresses the need for a major increase in resilience financing, estimating that a global investment of $1.8 trillion by 2030 in key sectors like water management and ecosystem protection could significantly mitigate the impact of climate and conflict-related shocks. Closing the gap in adaptation funding for fragile and conflict-affected countries remains critical to breaking the cycle of vulnerability and supporting sustainable development in the regions most at risk.