As Israel prepares for a closely contested election this Tuesday, the voting intentions of its estimated 630,000 citizens living abroad may play a significant role in shaping the outcome. With polls indicating a near tie between the governing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition, the participation of overseas Israelis, known as "shlikhim," is drawing attention for its potential to influence results in a parliamentary system where small shifts can have outsized effects.
Israel does not generally allow absentee voting for citizens residing abroad except under limited circumstances. Consequently, many overseas voters plan to travel back to cast their ballots. Some organizations, including the U.S.-based American-Israel Democracy Coalition, are providing logistical support and even chartered flights, anticipating that over 50,000 voters may return for the election. Such mobilization recalls past instances when overseas votes affected tight races, including Netanyahu’s initial 1996 victory.
The aftermath of the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, has heightened political engagement among Israelis living outside the country. Many who previously did not participate in elections now cite concerns over the government's response to the attacks, broader security issues, and domestic policies as motivating factors. Some express alarm over legislation perceived as discriminatory toward Arab parties and fear that Israel is becoming more racially and politically divided.
Several overseas Israelis interviewed ahead of the vote described plans to oppose Netanyahu and his allies. These voters often identify with center-left or liberal viewpoints and are concerned about the government’s handling of both security and democratic norms. Political scientists note that Israelis abroad tend to be younger, more educated, and come disproportionately from liberal urban areas like Tel Aviv, which correlates with opposition to Netanyahu’s hard-right government.
For example, Bar Luzon, an assistant professor at M.I.T., has never voted in an Israeli election since moving to the U.S. but plans to return to Israel to vote against Netanyahu’s coalition. Similarly, Amit Stern, a dual American-Israeli citizen who recently served near the Gaza border, also intends to vote for the opposition, seeking leadership with "more integrity" and less divisiveness. Some express fears that continued Netanyahu rule could prompt further emigration and undermine Israel’s democratic character, especially amid his ongoing corruption trial.
Not all overseas Israelis share this perspective. Some, like entrepreneur Ricki Alon from California, support Netanyahu, citing his experience and ability to manage the current crisis. Political analysts note that religious expatriates tend to lean more right-wing, and some have reportedly used charitable funds to facilitate their travel to vote for Netanyahu’s coalition members.
The governing party and its allies have expressed opposition to organized efforts to increase turnout among overseas voters, viewing such mobilization as an attempt by the left to sway the election. In recent months, Likud officials threatened legal action against groups assisting voters abroad, though some lawsuits were withdrawn after negotiations.
As election day approaches, the actions of Israelis abroad remain a focal point in a divisive and crucial contest. For many returning voters, the journey signals a commitment born from concern about Israel’s present challenges and future direction. Whether their participation will tip the balance remains uncertain, but it underscores the evolving dynamics of Israeli democracy in a complex regional and political environment.