In Pakistan’s southern Sindh province, where mango season typically thrives, exports of the fruit are set to decline significantly this year amid the ongoing fallout from the Middle East conflict that Pakistan has sought to mediate. Despite the harvest beginning in June, industry insiders predict a 30 percent drop in mango exports due to reduced demand in key markets and sharply increased shipping costs.

Pakistan, the world’s fourth-largest mango exporter, usually generates around $110 million annually from over two dozen mango varieties, with approximately 80 percent of exports destined for the Gulf region, Iran, and Afghanistan. However, conflict in these areas has severely disrupted trade. The border with Afghanistan remains closed, while ongoing hostilities in Iran and the wider Middle East have constrained access to crucial export markets.

Shipping expenses have surged as well, driven by blockades affecting maritime trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Experts estimate that the cost to ship a 25-ton container of mangoes has risen from about $1,400 last year to between $6,000 and $7,000 this year. This increase has added to the financial pressures facing mango growers and exporters.

In Tando Allahyar, a key mango-growing district, orchard manager Mohammad Shakeel expressed concern over the economic impact. He reported substantial losses and noted that some contractors have abandoned their orchard leases due to the inability to generate sufficient income. Shakeel also pointed to depressed domestic sales, attributing the decline to a rise in local inflation, which climbed to 10 percent over the three months following the onset of the regional conflict.

Local consumers are feeling the pinch as well. In markets such as Karachi, mango prices have dropped to nearly half of what they were last year, reflecting reduced export activity. Nevertheless, many households are still hesitant to purchase the fruit amid increasing costs for basic goods, limiting any potential boost that a domestic surplus might have provided.

While a preliminary agreement to cease hostilities between the United States and Iran was announced recently, stakeholders remain cautious. The truce came too late to positively impact this season’s mango exports and uncertainty persists over the durability of the peace, leaving Pakistani mango producers vulnerable to continuing geopolitical instability.

The situation highlights the broader vulnerabilities of Pakistan’s economy, which relies heavily on agriculture and is further challenged by climate change. For now, growers and exporters brace for a difficult season marked by contracted sales, soaring logistics costs, and a domestic market constrained by inflationary pressures.