Reform UK is facing significant internal and external challenges ahead of its annual conference in Birmingham, with the party’s public standing and internal cohesion showing signs of strain. Once buoyed by strong polling figures and aspirations to capitalize on political discontent with Labour under Keir Starmer, Reform’s fortunes have faltered amid controversies and defections.

Last year, Reform UK enjoyed a peak polling position of approximately 31%, significantly ahead of both Labour and the Conservative Party. However, recent data indicates a sharp decline, with current polling placing Reform at around 22%, trailing behind Labour, which has gained momentum following the appointment of a new prime minister and a so-called “Burnham bounce.” A poll released earlier this week reflects Labour at 26%, the Conservatives at 23%, and Reform at 22%.

Public perception of Reform UK’s leader, Nigel Farage, has also deteriorated markedly. YouGov figures show his net favourability rating has dropped to -44, down from -27 the previous summer. Only 19% of respondents now view Farage as a viable future prime minister, while 66% of the public—including more than a quarter of Reform supporters—doubt his suitability for the role. Furthermore, 56% perceive the party as incompetent and focused on narrow interests.

Internal discord has intensified following contentious remarks by Zia Yusuf, a senior figure in Reform UK. Yusuf’s public criticism of former Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace, whom he labeled a “traitor” and called to prosecute over the evacuation of Afghans to Britain, sparked uproar within and beyond the party. Farage indicated he would address Yusuf’s rhetoric, but tensions escalated as journalist criticism prompted further vitriolic responses from Yusuf online. The party also suspended Tim Montgomerie after he publicly rebuked Yusuf’s conduct, highlighting deep divisions.

Reform’s policy platform has faced scrutiny and setbacks over the summer. Proposals such as deploying the Royal Navy to intercept small boats crossing the English Channel met with strong rebuke from France, which described the plan as a breach of maritime law and sovereignty. Additional pledges, including efforts led by Robert Jenrick to restrict overseas nationals from claiming most benefits, raised legal and diplomatic concerns, with critics noting these measures would likely require renegotiation of the Brexit agreement.

The party’s reputation has further been dented by political controversies surrounding its leadership. Farage’s resignation from his parliamentary seat to trigger a by-election in Clacton, Essex, was framed as a way to seek voter endorsement amid a standards inquiry into a £5 million donation from Christopher Harborne. Farage defended the move as a means to let constituents decide amid media scrutiny, winning the by-election despite the presence of multiple fringe candidates and the absence of major party contenders. However, the parliamentary probe continues, and Farage has questioned its impartiality, noting the involvement of MPs from rival parties in the investigation.

Farage is also contending with fresh allegations regarding undeclared financial benefits linked to George Cottrell, a convicted fraudster known as “Posh George,” in the year before Farage was elected as an MP. Reports indicate that police are examining donations totaling half a million pounds made to Reform UK by Cottrell’s mother, Fiona Cottrell, compounding the party’s troubles.

Amid resignations and suspensions—averaging one councillor lost every three days since local elections in May—and evidence of faltering public confidence, Reform UK faces significant hurdles in sustaining its political momentum and internal unity going forward.