A small town in Argentina’s Patagonia region is working to prepare for potential glacial floods similar to the deadly event that recently struck Nepal. Scientists and local authorities are focusing on the risks posed by Laguna Torre, a glacial lake in Santa Cruz province that could unleash a sudden and massive flood, threatening the nearby town of El Chaltén.

Daniela Schmidt, a geologist at the University of Buenos Aires, has been studying the possibility of a glacial lake outburst flood (Glof) originating from a landslide on the northern slope of Cerro Solo, a 2,121-meter peak overlooking Laguna Torre. Based on her research, a collapse of ice and rock into the lake could trigger a wave traveling rapidly down the Fitz Roy River, reaching El Chaltén—which sits approximately five miles from the lake—in as little as 20 minutes.

Schmidt’s models estimate that such a collapse could displace between 8 million and 13 million cubic meters of material, resulting in a wave up to 5.8 meters high. The flood might reach peak discharges of nearly 1,770 cubic meters per second, sweeping away debris and potentially destroying critical infrastructure, including El Chaltén’s only access bridge to provincial route 41. The bridge’s loss would isolate the town, and flooding could disrupt gas and power supplies, schools, and homes.

The Torre glacier has experienced significant retreat in recent decades, having lost roughly 1.5 square miles of surface area and thinned by 60 to 70 meters between 1952 and 2023. This ice loss has destabilized surrounding slopes, causing increased landslides and rockfalls that raise the potential for a large-scale collapse. According to Schmidt, the slopes accelerate their movement during heavy rainfall or warm temperatures, both of which could serve as triggers for a sudden landslide.

Authorities from Los Glaciares National Park, the El Chaltén municipality, and local organizations have initiated efforts to develop Argentina’s first Glof early-warning system alongside evacuation protocols. Plans include a network of six monitoring stations equipped with cameras, sensors, and emergency buoys designed to provide alerts via sirens, text messages, and emails. However, funding setbacks have delayed system implementation.

In addition to technical responses, the municipality has begun dredging and clearing the Fitz Roy River channel beneath the key bridge to help mitigate flood impacts. Discussions are also underway regarding possible relocation of vulnerable infrastructure.

Local stakeholders express concern about the potential social and economic effects. Tourism, which sustains much of El Chaltén’s economy, could face disruption if warnings about flood risks cause visitors to cancel trips. Local mountain guides emphasize that managing the risk through awareness and alternative activities is preferable to discouraging tourism outright.

Although community awareness has increased following the recent dissemination of scientific findings, significant challenges remain. The depth of Laguna Torre has more than doubled in recent decades to over 220 meters, further elevating flood risk, while no formal comprehensive contingency plan has yet been finalized.

Experts say that while it is impossible to predict when or if such a flood will occur, preparations are essential. “It is going to happen,” said Schmidt, underscoring the need for ongoing vigilance amid evolving glacial landscapes. Local residents and officials alike are working to balance risk management with maintaining the town’s vibrant tourism industry, aiming to protect both lives and livelihoods in this rapidly changing environment.