The justice secretary has indicated that it will take a decade to establish a sustainable prison system capable of addressing the ongoing overcrowding crisis. Speaking to Members of Parliament, Alex Norris acknowledged the strain on the prison estate, describing the situation as a “perma-crisis” and apologising for the uncertainty caused by the recent pause and revision of a new early release scheme.

The scheme, which is set to begin next month, would allow inmates to be released after serving a third of their sentence under an “earned progression model” that rewards good behaviour and enforces longer stays for rule breakers. However, the government has introduced exclusions for foreign nationals convicted of murder, terrorism, rape, child sex offences, grooming, and manslaughter, who will be required to serve the majority of their sentences in British facilities. These exclusions, announced by Norris and the prime minister, follow concerns that the previous version of the scheme would push prison capacity to critical levels within months.

Internal Ministry of Justice analysis reportedly forecasts that around 1,400 additional prisoners will remain incarcerated due to these new exclusions over the next year, which could lead to prisons running out of space by May. The department plans to increase cell capacity by converting existing space, adding approximately 600 cells by the end of the year.

Additional measures to alleviate overcrowding include proposals to keep 18-year-olds in young offender institutions until shortly before their 19th birthday, delaying their transfer to adult prisons. From early next year, the government also intends to deport foreign criminals immediately after they complete their sentences, which may result in some serving little to no time in custody if their home country does not impose incarceration.

Norris emphasized the government’s commitment to long-term solutions, stating that the prime minister has set a goal of developing sustainable prison capacity over the next ten years. He stressed the importance of easing immediate pressures through legislative changes in the Sentencing Act.

Reactions from victims’ advocacy groups have been critical. Claire Waxman, the victims’ commissioner, expressed deep concerns about public safety with the new early release scheme, urging the government to declare a national emergency and convene an emergency Cobra meeting to address the prison crisis. She highlighted the ongoing anxiety experienced by thousands of victims, many of whom received letters in June informing them that perpetrators could be eligible for early release but have since faced uncertainty following the scheme’s suspension.

To address victims' concerns, Norris announced that victims would be consulted on licence conditions accompanying early releases and revealed plans to establish a new “challenge group” comprising leading victims’ campaigners to scrutinize future prison release policies.

In addition, the government intends to release prisoners serving sentences under the Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) regime by 2029. Introduced in 2005 for offenders deemed a significant public risk but whose crimes did not warrant life sentences, the IPP was abolished in 2012. Currently, 2,271 inmates remain under IPP sentences.

The combination of early release reforms, deportation policies, and infrastructural adjustments reflects the government’s multi-faceted approach to tackling persistent overcrowding, though it faces criticism regarding the potential impact on public safety and victim rights.