A potential shortage of pistachios is emerging as ongoing conflict in the Middle East coincides with challenging weather conditions affecting major growing regions. Industry experts warn that the 2026-27 season may yield smaller harvests, intensifying supply pressures amid rising global demand.

The United States leads global pistachio production, accounting for approximately 65% of the market, followed by Iran with 18%, and Turkey at 11%. Demand for pistachios has increased notably in recent years, fueled in part by culinary trends such as Dubai’s growing enthusiasm for chocolate confections incorporating the nuts. This has contributed to a significant rise in commodity prices, up by about one-third.

However, producers in key regions are facing difficulties. In Iran, ongoing conflict has disrupted supply chains, prompting pistachio exports to shift from sea routes to overland transportation, further constraining availability. Meanwhile, weather volatility has undermined crop prospects. Pistachios require a cold winter and a long, hot summer to thrive, but changing climate patterns have resulted in below-average yields across the US, Iran, and Turkey in recent seasons.

Nick Morris, a nut market analyst at Expana, noted that weather and production challenges are currently the primary factors affecting crop forecasts, rather than geopolitical tensions alone. In the United States, growers report that extreme heat has impacted both the size and quality of this year’s pistachio crop, despite a generally strong harvest in previous cycles. The cyclical nature of pistachio production has also led some US sellers to adopt a cautious stance in anticipation of a less productive year.

Market liquidity has reportedly tightened since early crop estimates were released, reflecting growing apprehension among traders and producers. Morris commented, “People are getting nervous looking ahead,” highlighting the uncertainty within the sector.

With supply concerns mounting and demand continuing to rise, stakeholders across the pistachio market are closely monitoring developments in climate and conflict zones that could influence availability and pricing in the coming months.