Millions of Brazilians are set to vote Sunday in a presidential election dominated by two main contenders: incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Although twelve candidates appear on the ballot, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are widely regarded as the frontrunners. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a runoff between the top two will occur on October 25.

Lula, 80, is pursuing an unprecedented fourth term as president in Brazil’s democratic era. Having already served three nonconsecutive terms, he remains a polarizing figure. Known for his long political career beginning as a union leader and surviving corruption convictions that were later annulled, Lula’s current administration has faced declining approval ratings amid ongoing concerns about crime, inflation, and living costs. He has pledged to protect Brazil’s natural resources, including the Amazon rainforest, while continuing social welfare programs like Bolsa Família, recently increased by 15%. However, critics and some voters express dissatisfaction with the pace of economic improvement and rising price levels.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is campaigning in his first presidential bid, seeking to restore his family’s political influence after his father’s presidency ended amid controversy. Jair Bolsonaro, who governed from 2019 to 2022 and is now serving a 27-year prison sentence for an attempted coup following the 2022 election loss to Lula, remains a defining presence in the race. Flávio has embraced elements of his father’s ultraconservative agenda, particularly on security issues, advocating for tougher crime measures such as constructing “megaprisons” and lowering the age of criminal responsibility. The senator denies any wrongdoing but faces multiple investigations related to alleged corruption, money laundering, and ties to organized crime and militia groups. His campaign has also been marred by allegations of accepting illicit funding from a disgraced banker for a film about Jair Bolsonaro.

The election highlights a deeply divided political landscape in Brazil, with many voters expressing fatigue and fear rather than enthusiasm. Polls suggest a nearly even split in public opinion, with substantial segments apprehensive about another term for either candidate. Analysts characterize the election as one of rejection, with both Lula and Bolsonaro seeking to position themselves as the lesser of two evils in a highly polarized environment.

Concerns about foreign interference have added another layer of complexity to the electoral process. The United States, particularly former President Donald Trump, looms large over the campaign. Lula has explicitly warned against external meddling, framing the election as a contest to defend Brazil’s sovereignty and democratic autonomy. The Trump administration previously imposed tariffs on Brazilian goods and designated Brazil’s major drug trafficking groups as terrorist organizations, moves Lula opposed. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro maintains that his family’s ties to Trump are beneficial but denies receiving any U.S. support. U.S. officials have denied allegations of attempting to influence the vote, despite Brazilian intelligence labeling the risk of interference as “critical.” The U.S. Embassy recently suspended consular services citing security concerns, fueling tensions.

Brazil’s use of electronic voting machines, introduced in the 1990s to reduce fraud, remains a contentious issue. Despite no significant evidence of systemic fraud, claims challenging the integrity of the electronic system persist, especially from Bolsonaro supporters echoing narratives similar to those from the Trump era in the United States.

In addition to the presidential contest, voters are casting ballots for governors, state and federal legislators, and some senators. The results of Sunday’s vote will shape Brazil’s political direction amid a backdrop of economic challenges, allegations of corruption involving key political figures on both sides, and concerns over democratic stability in Latin America’s largest country.