Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Andy Burnham, the former Greater Manchester mayor and current leadership front-runner, held a private meeting on June 23 as plans for a transition of power advance. This marked their first face-to-face discussion in nearly two months, following Starmer’s announcement of his intention to resign. The hour-long session took place away from Downing Street amid preparations to facilitate an orderly handover.

Starmer has communicated to his Cabinet a desire for a smooth transition and has authorized civil servants to begin briefing Burnham and other potential leadership candidates. Nominations for replacing Starmer officially open on July 9 and close on July 16, raising the possibility that Burnham could formally assume the premiership as early as July 17 if no rival emerges.

Burnham’s position as the favourite is widely recognised within the Labour Party, supported by a majority of MPs and senior figures. However, some parliamentarians have expressed reservations about an uncontested leadership change. Darren Jones, the Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, and Al Carns, a former defence minister, have been mentioned by colleagues as possible challengers, though both appear hesitant to launch full campaigns. Sources close to Jones have downplayed his likelihood of standing, while Carns has indicated he is still considering his options.

Among the Cabinet, there is notable activity surrounding prospective appointments under a Burnham government. Ed Miliband, the current Energy Secretary and former Labour leader, is a likely candidate to succeed Rachel Reeves as Chancellor, despite concerns from union leaders about his net zero policies and the potential impact on job creation. Wes Streeting, who withdrew from the leadership race in support of Burnham, is also speculated to be a contender for the Treasury but might face opposition from left-wing MPs.

Other key figures expected to retain or assume significant roles include Shabana Mahmood, anticipated to remain Home Secretary, and Lucy Powell, the Labour deputy leader and Burnham ally, who could play an influential part despite not previously holding a Cabinet position. David Lammy, who served as Deputy Prime Minister under Starmer, has expressed support for Burnham’s leadership.

Several ministers loyal to Starmer, such as Bridget Phillipson at Education and Pat McFadden at the Department for Work and Pensions, may continue in their roles. Phillipson, in particular, is reportedly committed to advancing reforms in special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Steve Reed, the current Housing Secretary and a Starmer supporter turned Burnham backer, wishes to carry on with his agenda focused on social housing and political reform.

The Environment Secretary, Emma Reynolds, praised Burnham’s communication skills and backed a swift leadership transition without a contentious contest, a sentiment echoed by Nick Thomas-Symonds and other senior MPs. In contrast, some backbenchers argue for a competitive election to fully appraise Burnham’s policies. Labour MP Nadia Whittome emphasized the need to address pressing national issues such as the cost of living, housing, and inequality, while John Slinger suggested a leadership race would provide necessary public scrutiny.

As the timeline for the leadership change approaches, Burnham is expected to begin publicly outlining his priorities and agenda. Meanwhile, internal discussions continue regarding the composition of his Cabinet and shadow team, with particular interest in incorporating northern female MPs who aided his recent Makerfield by-election victory. The coming weeks will be decisive in determining whether Burnham assumes the premiership unopposed or faces a contested leadership battle within Labour.