Poland has urged NATO members to prepare for a possible deadly hybrid attack by Russia, warning that Moscow’s growing sabotage and destabilisation operations across Europe could soon result in loss of life. The call came from Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski during a visit to London, as concern mounts over an increase in cyber attacks, airspace violations, and covert operations attributed to Russia.

Sikorski emphasized that determining when such actions constitute an armed attack requiring a NATO collective defense response remains a challenge. “The question is what constitutes an attack, a cross-border attack,” he said. While property damage alone has not triggered military responses, he warned that if casualties occur, NATO would need to have a “very serious conversation” about retaliation. He noted the absence of a clear prior definition or threshold for such judgments.

Poland and its Baltic neighbour Estonia have recently invoked NATO’s Article 4 — which calls for high-level consultations when a member’s security is threatened — in response to incursions involving Russian drones and fighter jets violating their airspace. However, Sikorski suggested such consultations may no longer suffice in the face of increasingly aggressive incidents.

NATO’s mutual defense clause, Article 5, has only been activated once, following the 2001 al-Qaeda attacks against the United States. The evolving nature of Russia’s so-called “shadow war” and hybrid tactics is fueling debate within the alliance about how and when to respond.

Several European intelligence agencies have also reported a troubling escalation in efforts by Russian operatives to target senior executives at defence firms, potentially by assassination. German authorities have expressed concern that Moscow’s campaign has entered a more dangerous phase after blaming Russia for a drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport in August aimed at a Ukrainian cargo flight; the device failed to detonate.

Sikorski called on European nations to take stronger measures against Russian diplomatic presence, including closing consulates, restricting travel for Russian diplomats, and reducing their overall numbers, actions Poland has already implemented. He also advocated for requiring Russians entering the European Union to hold biometric passports to prevent travel on false identities and supported limiting the issuance of EU tourist visas to Russian nationals. Nearly half a million such visas were granted last year.

Highlighting the case of the Leipzig/Halle attack, German investigators believe the assailant was a Belarusian with a Russian passport who entered Germany on a tourist visa, underscoring the security risks posed by current visa policies.

Sikorski urged all EU countries to attribute hybrid attacks to Russia when sufficient evidence exists, acknowledging political sensitivities may cause some to hesitate.

During his London visit, Sikorski also discussed Poland’s bid to join the 2027 G20 summit in Manchester, seeking British support in exchange for Warsaw's backing of the UK’s renewed engagement with the European Union. “We think the EU was better and would be better with Britain in it,” Sikorski said, calling for reciprocity in recognizing Poland’s economic progress over the past three decades.