A recent Channel 13 poll published Wednesday indicates that the opposition bloc in Israel would secure 69 seats if elections were held today, though this number decreases to 58 when accounting for continued boycotts by some Jewish parties toward Arab factions. The current governing coalition is projected to hold 51 seats, while Arab parties collectively are estimated to obtain 11 seats.

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads the survey with 23 seats, narrowly surpassing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, which is projected to receive 22 seats—down one from a previous poll. The results suggest a competitive political landscape ahead.

The poll forecasts that the “Zionist Home” party, headed by Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper, would fail to pass the electoral threshold required for representation. Meanwhile, Naftali Bennett’s Together party is expected to win 13 seats. The Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu parties each make modest gains, reaching 11 seats apiece.

Additional findings show Otzma Yehudit increasing its share to nine seats, up one from the prior poll, while United Torah Judaism is projected to lose one seat, dropping to eight. Shas maintains its current standing at seven seats. Among the Arab parties, Hadash-Ta’al is projected to gain two seats to six, and the United Arab List (UAL) remains steady at five seats. Religious Zionism increases by one seat to five.

The poll also examined alternative party alignments within the Arab factions. Under a scenario in which former Deputy Minister Yoav Segalovitz from the Together party joins the United Arab List and Hadash-Ta’al forms a joint list with Balad, the UAL would increase to seven seats, while the Hadash-Ta’al-Balad alliance would reach eight seats. This realignment would raise the combined Arab parties’ representation to 15 seats. Correspondingly, the governing coalition’s projection would decrease to 49 seats, and the opposition factions that oppose collaboration with Arab parties would decline to 56 seats.

These poll results underscore the fluidity of Israel’s political environment, highlighting the impact of potential alliances and ongoing divisions over cooperation with Arab parties, which continue to shape electoral prospects in the country.