Poll Predicts Higher Taxes and Debt Under Incoming PM Burnham

By the Editorial Team · Sunday, July 12, 2026

Andy Burnham is set to become the UK prime minister next week amid public expectations that his government will increase both taxes and borrowing, despite his prior assurances to the contrary. This skepticism highlights growing uncertainty about his economic policies as he faces political challenges from Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK’s Nigel Farage.

As Andy Burnham prepares to assume office as the United Kingdom’s next prime minister in the coming week, a recent Ipsos poll reveals significant public expectations regarding his economic policies. The survey indicates that a majority of Britons anticipate increases in both taxes and government borrowing under Burnham’s leadership.

According to the poll, 56% of respondents believe Burnham will raise government borrowing, thereby expanding the national debt, while 54% expect personal taxes to go up. Despite Burnham’s prior assurances that he will adhere to Labour’s manifesto commitments by not increasing income tax, VAT, or national insurance, public skepticism appears elevated. The survey reflects a growing uncertainty about the incoming prime minister’s core principles, with the share of those unclear about his stance rising from 38% to 43% over the latter half of June.

This uncertainty contrasts sharply with perceptions of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, 61% of whom said they understood his political positions. However, Burnham and Farage are nearly evenly matched in the public’s view of possessing “lots of personality,” with Burnham at 46% and Farage slightly ahead at 47%, while outgoing Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer trails at 16%.

The poll also sheds light on the public’s views regarding potential candidates to replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor under Burnham’s administration. Support for any of the likely contenders was minimal. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband received 7% backing as the best choice for chancellor, followed closely by former Health Secretary Wes Streeting at 6%, incumbent Chancellor Reeves at 5%, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper at 4%, and former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner also at 4%.

In contrast, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is perceived to offer a notably different economic approach. Only 39% of respondents anticipate she would increase borrowing and national debt if she became prime minister, and just 40% expect her to raise personal taxes. Public opinion is divided on public spending, with 47% believing Burnham will increase funding for public services, while an equal proportion think Badenoch would reduce it.

Burnham’s imminent arrival as prime minister sets the stage for forthcoming political dynamics involving Badenoch and Farage, both of whom face a markedly different Labour leadership figure compared to the previous administration under Starmer. Burnham’s office was invited to comment on the poll findings but did not respond by publication.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.