As Chicago approaches its February 23 municipal election, Mayor Brandon Johnson faces significant challenges in securing a second term, according to a recent poll that indicates widespread voter dissatisfaction and low enthusiasm for his reelection bid.

The survey, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago between September 13 and 23, sampled 1,108 adult Chicago residents, including 935 identified as likely voters. It found that 53% of all respondents disapproved of Johnson’s job performance, while just 22% expressed approval. Among likely voters, 55% reported little enthusiasm for his candidacy. Notably, only 25% of those who supported Johnson in the previous election named him as their top choice in the upcoming race.

Johnson, a former Chicago Teachers Union organizer and Cook County Board member, narrowly defeated former Mayor Lori Lightfoot in the February 2023 election and then won the April runoff against Paul Vallas by a slim margin. However, his tenure has been marked by controversy and strained relationships with key political groups. He is at odds with a majority of city aldermen, has lost allies in the state legislature, and faces criticism from business leaders who dispute his progressive agenda aimed at supporting the working class.

The mayor’s approval ratings have consistently remained below 30% since the second quarter of 2025, with disapproval rates over 50% in most surveys. The poll highlighted regional differences: disapproval was highest on the Northwest Side at 64.5%, and lowest in Johnson’s West Side neighborhood of Austin, where 44% disapproved and nearly one-third expressed no opinion. On the Southwest Side, despite a 53% disapproval rate, Johnson recorded his highest approval of 25%.

Demographically, approval varied notably along racial lines. Among Black residents—the city’s fourth Black mayor—24% approved of Johnson’s performance, while 46.5% disapproved. White respondents showed a 61% disapproval rate, and 49.5% of Hispanic residents disapproved.

The poll also assessed support for other potential candidates in what remains an evolving field. Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, known for his substantial campaign spending, led with about 25% backing among likely voters. Johnson ranked second with 14%, while other contenders failed to reach double-digit support. Among those who voted for Johnson in 2023, 22% preferred Giannoulias in the upcoming race.

Giannoulias’ candidacy generated enthusiasm from 59% of likely voters. Similarly, State Comptroller Susana Mendoza, who is running for mayor after opting not to seek reelection to her current office, was viewed favorably by 46% of likely voters. Nonetheless, a significant portion of the electorate—34%—remains undecided, indicating that the contest is still fluid.

Johnson continues to benefit from the backing of the Chicago Teachers Union, providing a substantial network for voter mobilization. Candidates began filing petitions Monday at the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners, competing for ballot placement through lotteries conducted at the start and close of the filing period, which ends October 26. To qualify, candidates must submit at least 12,500 valid signatures from registered Chicago voters, typically exceeding that threshold to counter potential challenges.

With the election nearly five months away, the poll underscores the difficulties Johnson faces as he seeks to overcome low approval ratings, fragmented support, and emerging challengers in a competitive and evolving mayoral race.