President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low less than a month before the midterm elections, according to a recent national poll conducted by Siena University and The New York Times. The survey, released this week, shows that just 36 percent of likely voters approve of Trump’s job performance, while 59 percent express disapproval, marking the lowest support measured for the president in this polling series.
The decline in approval is attributed largely to widespread dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy, the ongoing war in Iran, and rising gasoline prices, which have surged above $4 per gallon in many areas. Among independent voters—a key demographic in national elections—more than two-thirds disapprove of Trump’s leadership.
Economic concerns remain pronounced, with roughly three-quarters of respondents rating current economic conditions as “fair” or “poor.” Specifically, 69 percent disapprove of Trump’s management of the cost of living, and 65 percent disapprove of his handling of the conflict involving Iran. Nearly 75 percent view his approach to gas prices unfavorably.
The poll also indicates that Democratic candidates maintain a slight edge over Republican counterparts, with likely voters favoring Democrats by an 11-percentage-point margin in their congressional districts. This represents a modest improvement for Democrats compared to previous polls and is seen by analysts as a sign of political momentum heading into the elections.
Despite these advantages, Democrats face significant hurdles, particularly in the race for control of the Senate. They are targeting seats in states such as Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio—regions that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024. Several key Senate contests remain tightly contested according to other polling data.
The growing frustration with economic conditions has affected traditional Republican voter bases. The poll reflects gains for Democrats among groups that supported Trump in 2024, including men, young voters, and Hispanic voters. Some former Trump supporters have expressed disillusionment with the Republican Party and the president’s performance. For instance, Paul Gettings, 62, a former logistics company manager from Simi Valley, California, who supported Trump two years ago, now plans to back Democrats. He cited issues including high fuel costs, ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and immigration enforcement policies as reasons for his shift.
Among all registered voters, including those less likely to vote, Trump’s approval rating stands at 34 percent. Notably, the traditionally strong group of white voters without a college degree is now nearly evenly divided, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving of Trump’s performance.
Public perception of the Democratic Party has improved significantly over the last two years. A majority of likely voters now associate Democrats with representing the working class, a role once more strongly linked to Republicans. Additionally, Democrats are increasingly viewed as more likely to fulfill their campaign promises, reversing a previous advantage that Republicans held on this issue.
Overall, the poll signals a challenging environment for Republicans heading into the midterms, amid a climate of economic anxiety and shifting voter allegiances.