Young Americans are less likely to participate in this year’s midterm elections compared to previous cycles, but among those who do plan to vote, there is a pronounced preference for Democratic candidates, according to a Harvard Youth Poll released on October 22.
Conducted between September 30 and October 7, the poll surveyed 2,024 Americans aged 18 to 29. It found that while only 33% of young voters said they would definitely cast ballots this cycle—a decline from the 40% reported in both 2018 and 2022 midterms—those who intend to vote tend to favor Democrats by a wide margin.
The poll revealed a 16-point partisan gap in expected turnout: 50% of young Democrats plan to vote, compared with 34% of young Republicans. Among Republicans, turnout intentions differ sharply between those identifying as MAGA supporters (50% plan to vote) and non-MAGA Republicans (29%). This decline in expected participation among younger Republicans contrasts with their higher turnout in recent midterms, when 43% in 2018 and 46% in 2022 said they would vote.
Democrats hold a notable lead among young voters overall, with 45% expressing a preference for Democratic candidates and 24% favoring Republicans. Among likely voters in this demographic, the Democratic advantage widens to 63% versus 26%, according to the poll. This lead persists even among young men—a group that played a crucial role in Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential victory—with 58% supporting Democrats and 32% supporting Republicans. Among young women, 66% preferred Democrats compared to 21% for Republicans. The exception is young rural voters, where Democratic and Republican support is nearly even, at 43% and 42%, respectively.
Financial concerns are the predominant motivation for young voters, with 91% citing the cost of living as a key factor influencing their decision to vote. Additionally, 77% disapprove of Trump’s economic management, and nearly half report their personal financial situation has deteriorated. Notably, 48% of young Republicans also disapprove of the current economy. The poll indicates a growing pessimism among young people, with only about one-quarter believing they will be better off financially than their parents were at the same age.
Other major issues motivating this demographic include government corruption (88%), U.S. military involvement abroad (83%), healthcare costs (83%), and ensuring freedom and fairness in elections (82%). The poll also highlights a widespread distrust of electoral integrity, with only 34% of young voters expressing confidence that the upcoming midterms will be free and fair. This skepticism emerges amid ongoing false claims by Trump regarding the 2020 election and reports of suspicious letters sent to election offices nationwide.
The poll further points to populist leanings within Gen Z, with 63% supporting a ban on congressional members and their spouses trading stocks, 57% backing Medicare for All (including 39% of Republicans), and 54% favoring an annual wealth tax on individuals earning over $50 million (supported by 42% of Republicans).
John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, noted that young voters appear ready to deliver a rebuke to President Trump and signal a desire for political leaders to address economic and social challenges by making life more affordable and providing tangible reasons for political engagement.