The most successful gambler on the cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket is a pseudonymous account known as “swisstony,” which has earned approximately $12 million trading on sports events since April 2026, according to an analysis of blockchain data. The study examined 170 million bets placed by 1.2 million retail accounts on the platform to identify the highest-earning traders during this period.
The top-performing accounts display varied betting strategies. Some relied on a small number of large, high-risk wagers, occasionally exceeding $1 million on a single bet, while others, including swisstony, employed high-volume, algorithmic approaches. The swisstony account placed 184,000 positions across 113,112 distinct markets, maintaining intense betting activity—for instance, wagering at least once per hour for 26 consecutive days starting in June.
Another notable account, joseph00677, followed a more traditional sports betting approach, focusing on European international football matches, Champions League fixtures, and English Premier League games. However, joseph00677 fell from ninth to tenth place in the rankings after a significant loss betting on Chelsea to defeat Tottenham Hotspur.
Among the top 10 earners, aside from swisstony and joseph00677, many placed exceptionally large single bets—often over $1 million—on a few men’s World Cup matches. Such high-stake wagers would be challenging to place with conventional bookmakers, who usually impose deposit or stake limits. Moreover, players in jurisdictions with strict gambling regulations might find it difficult to access authorized local operators.
Polymarket, which enables users to trade anonymously by connecting cryptocurrency wallets without mandatory identity verification, presents an alternative venue for high-stakes gambling. The platform monitors large bets, especially in markets vulnerable to manipulation, and screens wallets against sanction lists in collaboration with partners like Chainalysis. According to Polymarket, on-chain transparency offers a stronger monitoring tool than traditional identity checks.
The second and third highest earners, accounts named mintblade and fishalive, also recorded notable World Cup successes. Mintblade profited by backing Saudi Arabia and New Zealand in key matches, while fishalive placed two substantial World Cup bets totaling over $4 million on Spain’s match against Cabo Verde, cashing in $4.7 million after the underdog secured a draw.
Experts suggest the two high-volume accounts, swisstony and RN1, employed contrasting methods. Chris Park, founder of prediction market analytics firm MSR Decode, described swisstony as a highly skilled bettor capitalizing on undervalued contracts by accepting prices posted by other participants, achieving steady returns with efficient capital recycling. In contrast, RN1 appears to operate more like a traditional bookmaker by offering standing orders on both sides of markets, seeking arbitrage opportunities.
While RN1 remains active, swisstony has withdrawn from placing new bets in the past two months and updated its profile with a farewell message referencing a popular science fiction series. The true identity of swisstony remains unknown; the username may allude to Swiss origins or a British television character from the 1990s.
Major gambling operators such as DraftKings and Flutter have acknowledged profits from applying their odds-setting models as market makers on prediction platforms. Meanwhile, the broader Polymarket community closely watches prominent accounts and speculates on whether successful traders like swisstony might conceal themselves behind multiple smaller accounts or transition to less transparent markets.
The data also indicate that most bettors on Polymarket do not profit consistently. Among those wagering over $100, 68% lost money, with 4% forfeiting their entire stake. Although sports betting remains Polymarket’s primary revenue source, markets based on cryptocurrency price movements have grown substantially in importance.