Post-Covid inactivity was much lower than thought, ONS says

By the Editorial Team · Tuesday, September 29, 2026

The UK’s Office for National Statistics has found that the post-Covid drop in workforce participation, especially among older workers, was less severe than previously reported due to earlier survey inaccuracies. This revised data challenges the narrative of a sustained labour force contraction and offers a more accurate basis for assessing economic inactivity and employment trends since the pandemic.

New analysis from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates that the post-Covid decline in workforce participation, particularly among older workers, was significantly less severe than previously reported. The findings suggest that earlier assessments of economic inactivity between 2021 and 2025 were distorted by methodological issues in the Labour Force Survey (LFS), which has been a key source of labour market data.

The ONS revealed that the pandemic period saw a larger initial drop in employment than official figures indicated, but this was followed by a more robust recovery, challenging the narrative of a protracted workforce contraction unique to the UK. Previously, official estimates had shown a sustained reduction in the UK labour force after the Covid-19 crisis, leading to widespread speculation that the country was disproportionately affected by factors such as long Covid, increased NHS waiting times, or a wave of early retirements, especially among higher earners.

The statistical agency attributed these distortions primarily to a significant decline in LFS response rates during and after the pandemic, which resulted in an overrepresentation of older non-working individuals in the survey data. To address this, the ONS linked tax records with LFS responses to create a more accurate picture of employment trends. This revised approach indicated that between mid-2020 and the end of 2021, the employment rate across all age groups was approximately 0.57 percentage points lower each quarter than initially reported—equivalent to around 230,000 fewer workers. However, from 2022 through 2024, the employment rate was on average 0.42 percentage points higher per quarter than official data had shown, translating to roughly 174,000 additional people in employment.

Crucially, the revised data narrowed the gap in economic inactivity estimates among the 50- to 64-year-old demographic. While earlier figures suggested inactivity remained elevated at 27.4 percent by the end of 2022, the ONS’s updated analysis places this rate at 25.9 percent—still above pre-pandemic levels but more consistent with trends observed in other advanced economies.

The ONS also noted that recent improvements in LFS response rates have brought newer estimates of workforce inactivity more closely into alignment with their updated findings. These new insights come shortly after the agency revised productivity data for the UK labour market, revealing that a long-term decline in working hours persisted beyond the 2008 financial crisis, contrary to earlier assessments. This revision led to upward adjustments in measured productivity growth, doubling the previously estimated increase during the decade following the crisis.

Despite these developments, the ONS does not currently plan to revise its official historical employment, unemployment, or inactivity statistics due to ongoing uncertainties, including limited clarity on self-employment trends during the unreliable LFS period. Nonetheless, the agency’s latest research is set to reshape understanding of the UK’s post-pandemic labour market dynamics.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.