The funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been delayed for several months and is currently underway in Tehran, where large crowds gathered to mourn while displaying rhetoric of defiance toward the United States. The gathering, reportedly including many bused in from across the country, featured demonstrators holding placards vowing retaliation following a February airstrike that targeted the supreme leader’s residence. Khamenei is scheduled to be interred in the holy city of Mashhad on Thursday.

Following Khamenei’s death, the Iranian regime promptly named his second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor. However, Mojtaba has not been seen publicly since the airstrike, leading to speculation over his condition. Some analysts suggest he may have sustained serious injuries and is recuperating in secret, while others believe that members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) advise him to avoid public appearances amid fears of further attacks by Israel or the United States.

Photographs from the funeral have shown Khamenei’s other three sons but notably omit Mojtaba, reinforcing concerns about his security. Mojtaba previously served as his father’s de facto chief of staff and played a critical role in managing relations with the IRGC, an organization often described as a powerful entity within the Iranian state apparatus.

Since the February strike, Tehran has sought to project strength, including closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, a move with significant implications for global energy markets. Nonetheless, Iranian officials remain cautious, wary of potential escalations from the administration of former President Donald Trump or other external actors.

Observers indicate that the succession process within Iran remains unresolved, with the official elevation of Mojtaba reflecting continuity in the country’s identity as an Islamic republic committed to Shia Islam. However, the underlying power structures appear increasingly fragmented. Decision-making authority seems to be shifting from a centralized hierarchy to a more distributed network of IRGC commanders, whose competing interests span military, commercial, and bureaucratic spheres.

Within this factional landscape, divergent approaches are emerging. Some leaders advocate further investment in regional proxy forces to sustain Iran’s influence across the Middle East, while others—referred to as “moderates”—favor dialogue with the United States as a potential means of securing sanctions relief and stabilizing Iran’s troubled economy.

International analysts underscore the current period of uncertainty as a critical opportunity for Western governments to establish a coordinated strategy aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. Proposals emphasize clear agreements on the sequencing of nuclear disarmament, rigorous monitoring, and the management of nuclear materials, coupled with guarantees safeguarding free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite suffering significant blows, Iran’s regime has demonstrated resilience. Its nuclear aspirations, control over the strait, and extensive network of proxy militias remain intact. The prevailing concern among experts is that without concerted diplomatic efforts, the situation risks stagnating into a protracted conflict prone to renewed violence fueled by competing factions within Iran.