Spencer Pratt’s chances of defeating incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in the upcoming Los Angeles mayoral race have notably increased, according to data from a widely followed prediction market. As of April 30, Pratt’s odds of winning stood at 25%, surpassing Bass’s 18%, marking a significant rise for the independent candidate since April 24. Democratic socialist Nithya Raman remained the frontrunner with a 60% probability of victory.

The market further indicated that Pratt has a 43% likelihood of finishing second, compared to Raman’s 30% and Bass’s 24%. These figures reflect shifting voter sentiment as the city moves closer to the June 2 primary election.

Since July of the previous year, Bass had been viewed as the favorite in the race, but her standing began to wane in March when Raman assumed the lead. Pratt’s recent gains have allowed him to overtake Bass in this predictive measure.

The betting market, with approximately $1.5 million in volume, is sensitive to large wagers, which can influence the odds for the leading candidates. Tyler Winklevoss, CEO of Gemini and co-founder of an early social media platform, recently placed a $1,000.80 bet on Pratt, publicly endorsing the independent hopeful via social media and calling for a “New Golden Age” for Los Angeles under Pratt’s leadership.

The mayoral primary is scheduled for early June, with the market’s evolving odds offering insight into the dynamic and competitive nature of the race.