The Western Conference is projected to showcase a distinct divide in the upcoming NBA season, with the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs positioned as clear leaders, while the rest of the teams appear to be trailing behind. This shift is underscored by the elimination of incentives to tank, which is expected to foster more competitiveness among the lower-ranked teams, though a clear gap remains at the top.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are projected to dominate once again, potentially surpassing 60 wins for the second consecutive season. Last year, they finished with a 64-18 record, achieving one of the best point differentials historically despite injuries to key players like Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, and two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Their ability to win consistently even when not at full strength positions them as the conference’s benchmark.
Close behind, the San Antonio Spurs are anticipated to remain formidable, expected to secure one of the league’s top records. Even with the possibility of Victor Wembanyama missing some games, the Spurs strengthened their roster by acquiring power forward Tobias Harris and retaining a deep lineup featuring emerging talents such as Dylan Harper and strong defenders like Stephon Castle. Their veteran core and role players contribute to a balanced and competitive team.
The Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets, and Los Angeles Lakers round out the next tier of contenders. Houston revamped its roster with the return of Fred VanVleet from injury and added veterans Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic, creating a less Durant-dependent frontcourt. Denver’s outlook centers on the future of three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, whose upcoming free agency looms over the franchise’s offseason moves. The Nuggets’ bench depth remains a concern despite a strong starting lineup.
The Lakers face pressure amid new ownership and the aftermath of LeBron James’s departure, having traded for center Walker Kessler and signed several role players to bolster an otherwise unproven roster. Their strategy includes significant cap space commitments, drawing questions about sustainability and fit.
Mid-tier teams such as the Minnesota Timberwolves, Portland Trail Blazers, and Utah Jazz are projected to hover around the play-in tournament threshold, with various challenges. Minnesota’s mix of Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball presents scoring potential but comes with notable personnel losses. Portland’s acquisition of Ja Morant, alongside the return of Damian Lillard from injury, introduces lineup complications at the guard position. Utah intends to compete more seriously this season under coach Dell W. Hardy after previous years marked by tanking efforts.
The lower playoff and play-in contenders include the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns, who have both faced roster and injury setbacks. Golden State’s aging core and limited bench depth contribute to an uncertain outlook, while the Suns, despite previous steady progress, have made questionable trades and contract decisions that may hamper flexibility moving forward.
Further down the standings, the Dallas Mavericks, New Orleans Pelicans, and Memphis Grizzlies are adjusting following roster changes and rebuilding efforts. Dallas possesses young talent such as Cooper Flagg but must navigate integration challenges and the potential midseason trade of Kyrie Irving. New Orleans hinges on Zion Williamson’s health and the contributions of recent acquisitions Dejounte Murray and Bennedict Mathurin. Memphis is in a rebuilding phase after trading key stars, focusing on developing young talent like Cameron Boozer and Cedric Coward.
The Los Angeles Clippers continue their long-term rebuild after trading Kawhi Leonard but face organizational instability and limited draft control until 2034. The Sacramento Kings are forecasted to struggle again, burdened by an expensive yet underperforming roster and a challenging draft position in a weakened upcoming class.
Overall, the Western Conference is expected to maintain a competitive environment below the top tier, but only a select few teams are anticipated to sustain winning records, highlighting a pronounced division in quality and performance this season.