The online prediction market platform Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Representative George Santos, citing findings that he engaged in insider trading related to bets on his attendance at President Trump’s State of the Union address earlier this year. The ban, announced Monday, is the first lifetime prohibition issued by Kalshi and includes a $71,356 penalty.
Between February 2 and February 25, Santos placed a series of large bets on Kalshi markets predicting whether he would attend the February 2026 address. Shortly before the speech, Santos publicly stated on social media that he planned to attend, but on the day of the event he revealed he was delayed at the airport and would not be present in the gallery. Kalshi’s compliance department concluded that Santos’s online statements, some of which they described as false or misleading, were made to influence the betting market and that he traded on inside information. The platform said Santos profited approximately $17,839 from these trades.
Kalshi’s rules prohibit individuals from trading on events in which they have insider knowledge that could influence outcomes. The company noted that while other individuals involved in similar cases received multi-year bans and fines, Santos was the only person who did not cooperate with their investigation. As a result, he was permanently barred from accessing Kalshi either directly or indirectly.
In addition to the Kalshi sanctions, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also fined Santos $35,000 in August for the same activities. The federal regulator further imposed a three-year ban on Santos from participating in any prediction market platforms. According to the CFTC, Santos’s online misrepresentations contributed to market manipulation by misleading other traders about his attendance.
Santos, who was expelled from the U.S. House in 2023 following convictions for fraud and identity theft, served a brief prison sentence before receiving clemency from former President Trump. His attorney previously characterized payments to settle regulatory actions as efforts to avoid extended legal disputes, denying admissions of wrongdoing. Santos has publicly expressed defiance on social media regarding Kalshi’s actions, questioning the company’s longevity following his ban.
The growing prominence of prediction markets has brought increased scrutiny over their vulnerability to manipulation by insiders. In recent months, other cases have surfaced, including a White House teleprompter operator fined by the CFTC for profiting from trades based on confidential information about presidential speeches. Additionally, Polymarket, a rival platform, severed paid ties with Santos amid the investigation into his trading activities.
The developments underline regulatory and operational challenges faced by prediction markets as they continue to expand in popularity while seeking to ensure compliance with laws and maintain market integrity. Meanwhile, Santos retains the option to appeal Kalshi’s decision with the CFTC.