The longstanding strategic alliance between the United States and Israel remains a critical element of regional stability in the Middle East, underpinned by the U.S. commitment to maintaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) over neighboring adversaries. This commitment, codified in Section 36(h) of the U.S. Arms Export Control Act, is implemented through a combination of bilateral agreements, structured defense consultations, and confidential reporting to the U.S. Congress.

Recent developments in the region, particularly following the events of October 7, have intensified concerns about preserving Israel’s military superiority. Factors such as the possible normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, expansion of the Abraham Accords, improving relations between the U.S. and Turkey, and fluctuating levels of American public support for Israel contribute to an increasingly complex strategic environment. While these shifts could offer new opportunities for cooperation, observers stress that safeguarding Israel’s edge remains crucial.

A significant challenge to Israel’s QME is the ongoing U.S. arms sales to other Middle Eastern states. Proposed transactions, notably the potential sale of roughly 50 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, highlight the dual risks involved: the direct threat to Israeli defense capabilities and the possibility of sensitive U.S. and Israeli-adapted technology falling into the hands of regional rivals such as Iran, or even global competitors like Russia and China. Such technology transfers could enable adversaries to develop countermeasures or offensive capacities targeting Israel.

Though no immediate threat from Saudi Arabia is apparent, military planners emphasize the need to consider long-term scenarios, recognizing the volatility of regional leadership and alliances. Past experience suggests that Israel must focus on securing its military advantage regardless of current geopolitical alignments.

Potential future proliferation patterns, if the U.S. administration’s proposed 20-Point Plan advances, include large-scale acquisitions of F-35s by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and possibly Turkey, along with upgraded F-15 aircraft to other regional states. This proliferation underscores the importance of tailored offset measures that limit the risk of technological exposure and preserve Israel’s relative superiority.

Assessment of Israel's QME involves complex and classified criteria managed by the Pentagon, making public evaluation difficult. Nevertheless, experts highlight approaches to maintaining the edge by both accelerating Israel’s acquisition of advanced U.S. military systems and restricting qualitative and quantitative arms transfers to other regional actors.

Key measures proposed to offset the impact of expanding F-35 sales include exclusive Israeli upgrades to the F-35I variant that enhance capabilities unavailable elsewhere, additional deliveries of F-35s to Israel, early Israeli participation in next-generation fighter programs, deployment of advanced ground-based radar systems, and reinforcement of Israel’s multilayered air defense networks. Ensuring the customized F-35I remains superior to versions operated by other regional forces is regarded as essential.

The potential sale of F-35s to Turkey is viewed with particular concern due to Turkey’s regional military activities and historically strained relations with Israel. Despite Turkey's membership in NATO, its security posture and involvement in conflicts across Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Gaza invite scrutiny. Experts recommend that any renewal of Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program be incorporated into QME assessments.

Maintaining the U.S. commitment to Israel’s security remains foundational to Israel’s national defense strategy. In light of rapidly evolving regional dynamics, preserving Israel’s qualitative military advantage demands urgent, focused efforts from both governments to ensure the country’s enduring strategic edge.