President Prabowo Subianto marked two years in office this month amid growing public dissatisfaction and political uncertainty in Indonesia. Once seen as a unifying leader, his approval ratings have declined significantly, with recent polls showing only 44.5% of Indonesians expressing support— the lowest recorded for any Indonesian president since polling began two decades ago.
Prabowo, a former military general and former son-in-law of ex-dictator Suharto, campaigned in 2024 on promises of continuity and social welfare expansion, including a multibillion-dollar free meals program aimed at tackling malnutrition. However, the initiative has faced numerous setbacks and controversies. In June, the head of the national nutrition agency responsible for the program was arrested on corruption charges. Additionally, thousands of schoolchildren have been affected by contaminated meals containing maggots and glass fragments, sparking widespread criticism.
Experts say the administration has struggled to translate policy ambitions into effective implementation. “This current government is strong at agenda setting in public policy, but it is very weak at delivery,” said Yanuar Nugroho, a former presidential staffer and visitng fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. “I think this is the worst and the most messy.”
In response to mounting issues with the free meals program, the government announced plans to strengthen oversight and increase collaboration with local authorities. Despite these efforts, a recent poll by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting showed 62% of Indonesians oppose the program, underscoring broader public discontent.
The country’s economic situation is also a source of concern. The Indonesian rupiah has dropped to record lows against the U.S. dollar this year, contributing to economic uncertainty. Indonesia has seen three different finance ministers in less than two years, and lengthy fuel queues have been reported across Bali, Sulawesi, and Kalimantan. Compounding these challenges, MSCI, a global index provider, warned of downgrading Indonesia to “standalone market” status amid concerns over unclear share ownership and suspected coordinated trading. The government defended its record, citing 5.29% GDP growth in the second quarter and reductions in poverty rates, while accelerating market reforms.
Prabowo responded assertively to the MSCI threat, characterizing it as intimidation and asserting that Indonesia would not back down. Meanwhile, analysts note the president’s reputation for stubbornness and reluctance to accept external advice, though officials maintain he engages in ongoing dialogue with diverse stakeholders.
Political analysts also highlight increasing uncertainty and the potential for social unrest, with demonstrations so far limited but the risk of escalation growing. Kennedy Muslim of pollster Indikator noted that while public grievances are mounting, a triggering event would be necessary to spark larger protests.
Observers point to a troubling shift in Indonesia’s political landscape since the post-Suharto reform era. According to analyst Kevin O’Rourke, earlier administrations maintained democratic checks, balancing opposition rights and parliamentary oversight. In contrast, the current government operates with fewer constraints, creating an environment described as “very ugly and very unpredictable, volatile.”
As President Prabowo enters the midpoint of his term, Indonesia faces significant challenges both economically and politically, with public trust eroding amid policy controversies and institutional tensions.