Danish intelligence has issued a warning that Russia could launch a limited military attack against a NATO country within the coming months, marking one of the most direct alerts from Western security services on this matter. The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) indicated there is a “low but growing risk” that Russia might deploy troops—potentially without insignia—into a neighboring NATO country or conduct long-range strikes against infrastructure supporting Ukraine.
Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of the DDIS, stated that any incursion could be justified by Russia as a move to protect local Russian minorities, with the strategic aim of sowing division within the NATO alliance. The warning comes amid a rise in so-called hybrid attacks attributed to Russia, including a thwarted drone strike on Leipzig airport in Germany and an incident involving a Russian vessel firing flares at a Danish helicopter over the Baltic Sea.
The Danish intelligence report emphasized that Russia is under significant pressure as a result of its ongoing war in Ukraine, which began with a full-scale invasion in February 2022. There is little expectation of a major Russian advance on the battlefield over the next six months. Instead, Russia is believed likely to increase hybrid warfare tactics, which include destructive cyberattacks intended to disrupt societal functions, as well as sabotage operations that could result in civilian casualties.
Danish Defence Minister Jeppe Bruus noted that Russia’s inability to achieve its objectives in Ukraine is driving it to target the countries providing support to Kyiv. While the Danish intelligence assessment concludes a full-scale Russian invasion of a NATO country is “highly unlikely” in the short term due to the required troop build-up, it cautions that such a scenario “cannot be ruled out.”
The report suggests that Russia could escalate with hybrid attacks or limited military actions even as the conflict in Ukraine continues. It estimates that a local war against a NATO neighbor could take about six months to prepare, with two years required for a credible regional threat and five years before a large-scale war in Europe might be feasible.
Recent incidents underscore growing concerns about Russian hybrid tactics in Europe. In Poland, a fire at a Starlink satellite station—crucial for Ukrainian military communications—was labeled by local authorities as an act of sabotage. Although responsibility has not been definitively assigned, Polish officials have linked the attack to Moscow’s broader strategy. Other European countries have reported sabotage against infrastructure supporting Ukraine, with Germany attributing a drone attack on Leipzig airport to Russia, claims that Moscow denies.
Some Western intelligence officials caution that Russia may seek to test NATO’s collective defense commitment under Article 5, potentially assuming that NATO members will respond unevenly. This concern is heightened by recent political tensions within NATO, such as skepticism expressed by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico regarding Slovakia’s obligation under Article 5.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russia continues to pose a threat not only to Ukraine but also to neighboring countries like Moldova, Poland, and the Baltic states, as well as to nations in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. He stressed that greater freedom for Russian actions would only increase global dangers.
A source familiar with Moscow’s perspective said Russian military leadership believes certain NATO countries are already engaged in a hybrid war against Russia by providing Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and guidance for missile and drone strikes, justifying in Russia’s view reciprocal hybrid attacks.
Overall, the Danish intelligence report highlights an environment of heightened alert in Europe, with expectations of increased Russian hybrid warfare efforts aimed at disrupting NATO cohesion and support for Ukraine in the months ahead.