Pro-Russia former president Rumen Radev appears poised to secure a parliamentary majority in Bulgaria’s recent snap elections, a development that may bring political stability to the country but also raise concerns within the European Union and NATO about Sofia’s alignment. According to independent local polling conducted by AlphaResearch, Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria (PB) coalition is projected to win approximately 43 percent of the vote, translating into 129 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly. Final official results were expected shortly after the vote.

Radev, who stepped down from the presidency in January to pursue the prime ministership, framed the election outcome as a triumph over political apathy and distrust, emphasizing themes of morality, hope, and freedom amid widespread public dissatisfaction with Bulgaria’s political elite. His campaign focused heavily on anti-corruption efforts, a pressing issue in a country long plagued by graft and weak rule of law.

If the projections hold, Radev’s alliance with the pro-reform, pro-Western liberal party We Continue the Change (PP-BD), which is expected to claim 36 seats, would give the new parliament a substantial supermajority capable of pushing through significant judicial reforms. However, the coalition raises questions due to Radev’s well-documented pro-Russian positions. As president, he was cautious in condemning Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, criticized EU sanctions against Russia, and opposed Bulgaria’s recent euro adoption, even attempting to hold a referendum to overturn it.

Radev’s rise marks a potential shift in Bulgaria’s foreign policy orientation. Analysts note that alongside the far-right Revival party — predicted to secure 12 seats, down from 33, and known for its pro-Russian stance — the new parliament may tilt toward a more Russia-friendly posture, moving away from the traditionally pro-Western direction of previous governments.

Goran Georgiev, a researcher specializing in Russian disinformation, warned that Radev’s leadership could amplify Moscow’s influence in Bulgarian politics. “We will end up with a parliament in which the majority will be pro-Russian for the first time in Bulgaria’s recent history,” he said.

The center-right GERB party, led by former premier Boyko Borisov, was set to win just 40 seats, with its junior coalition partner, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), linked to the sanctioned oligarch Delyan Peevski, receiving 23 seats. Both parties have been associated with entrenched political networks that Radev vowed to dismantle, referring to the “Peevski-Borisov model” as one that must be eradicated.

Radev’s campaign explicitly targeted the established political class and supported a stance against foreign oligarchic influence. In the final hours before the election, he called on Bulgarians to “take our country back,” signaling an intent to reform the system decisively.

Reactions among European observers have been mixed. Some express concern that Radev could become a vehicle for Russian interests within the EU. Valérie Hayer, leader of the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, which includes PP-BD members, described Radev as potentially “Putin’s Trojan horse in Europe.” During the campaign, Radev projected himself as a key figure in restoring ties with Russia, including a statement to a pro-Kremlin outlet expressing his desire to strengthen bilateral relations.

Despite these developments, some analysts believe any shift in Bulgaria’s pro-West orientation could be limited. Boriana Dimitrova, director of AlphaResearch, suggested that economic dependence on EU funds, Bulgaria’s high public support for EU membership, and a strong pro-European parliamentary opposition may constrain Radev’s policy choices.

Bulgaria, which joined the eurozone in January and entered the Schengen Area just over a year ago, remains a vital EU member due to its geographical position and role as an energy transit route. How the new government balances its domestic reform agenda with foreign policy orientation will be closely watched in Brussels and beyond.